Toledo at Fresno State - 2018 Matchup Preview
Toledo logo Toledo Rockets at Fresno State BulldogsFresno State logo
Saturday, September 29th 2018 (10:30 PM EDT)
Fresno State -10 (61.0)
Fresno State 49 - Toledo: 27

 
Rockets (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 40 - 31 (35 - 35 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
FRES coming off BYE
Our Line: -10  (SP+ FRES -15)
Projected Score: TOL: 23 - FRES: 37 (60)
FRES Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
TOL Travel: 1949 miles, 3 hrs ahead
Bulldogs (12 - 2) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 35 - 14 (43 - 15 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Toledo's 2018 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/1 Toledo vs VMI-48.553.0W 66 - 3OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/15 Toledo vs Miami+12.058.0L 24 - 49ON
Sat 9/22 Toledo vs Nevada-10.567.5W 63 - 44OY
Sat 9/29 Toledo at Fresno State+10.061.0L 27 - 49ON
Sat 10/6 Toledo vs Bowling Green-23.071.0W 52 - 36ON
Sat 10/13 Toledo at Eastern Michigan-2.062.0L 26 - 28UN
Sat 10/20 Toledo vs Buffalo-3.063.0L 17 - 31UN
Thu 10/25 Toledo at Western Michigan+4.069.0W 51 - 24OY
Wed 10/31 Toledo vs Ball State-19.564.0W 45 - 13UY
Wed 11/7 Toledo at Northern Illinois+3.554.0L 15 - 38UN
Thu 11/15 Toledo at Kent State-11.557.5W 56 - 34OY
Fri 11/23 Toledo vs Central Michigan-19.058.0W 51 - 13OY
Fri 12/21 Toledo vs Florida International-7.057.5L 32 - 35ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule
Fresno State's 2018 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/1 Fresno State vs Idaho-24.543.0W 79 - 13OY
Sat 9/8 Fresno State at Minnesota+1.050.5L 14 - 21UN
Sat 9/15 Fresno State at UCLA-2.550.5W 38 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/29 Fresno State vs Toledo-10.061.0W 49 - 27OY
Sat 10/6 Fresno State at Nevada-15.059.0W 21 - 3UY
Sat 10/13 Fresno State vs Wyoming-17.544.0W 27 - 3UY
Sat 10/20 Fresno State at New Mexico-14.052.5W 38 - 7UY
Sat 10/27 Fresno State vs Hawai'i-24.559.5W 50 - 20OY
Sat 11/3 Fresno State at UNLV-27.058.5W 48 - 3UY
Fri 11/9 Fresno State at Boise State-2.556.0L 17 - 24UN
Sat 11/17 Fresno State vs San Diego State-13.042.5W 23 - 14UN
Sat 11/24 Fresno State vs San José State-31.551.0W 31 - 13UN
Sat 12/1 Fresno State at Boise State+2.051.5W 19 - 16UY
Sat 12/15 Fresno State vs Arizona State-6.054.0W 31 - 20UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule
Important Stats (2018)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL.2246%40.449%3.4421641%2283.91.2245%30.546%43%4.1170.11.41.6
FRES.2448%34.644%2.8315450%2674.0435%14.133%36%2.2843.811.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL#111 (.11)41% (95)38% (120)2.66 (121)11144% (46)2273.55 (99)#20 (.09)40% (43)42% (60)38% (35)3.87 (79)46.71.31.3
FRES#110 (.11)39% (110)38% (121)2.73 (115)10141% (76)2423.68 (91)#17 (.08)40% (51)43% (74)38% (33)3.63 (47)551.31.5



Overall Stats 2018
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Offense1340.43546.1%3.911.4234442162285.353%45%49%41%16%.22
FRES Defense1414.11535.5%2.281.8 - - - - - 51%47%33%36%17%.04
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Defense1330.534.644.9%4.111.6 - - - - - 50%49%46%43%18%.22
FRES Offense1434.643.248.3%41204211542674.348%51%44%50%12%.24

Additional Stats 2018
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Toledo1329:1923.137%45%7.570.11.41.66.92.5634.6
Fresno State1430:2120.145%70%5.143.811.84.91.7431.2
Run Game Stats (2018)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Offense1353%49%41216.15.330.253.4474%10%1.05
FRES Defense1451%33% - - - - .012.8557%8%0.89
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Defense1350%46% - - - - .222.9964%12%1.08
FRES Offense1448%44%35.8154.44.331.122.8369%7%0.91

Pass Game Stats (2018)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Offense1345%41%16.930.3227.97.513.53211.211.631%34%.266%1.8
FRES Defense1447%36% - - - - - - 19.071.735%26%.179%2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Defense1349%43% - - - - - - 12.221.529%34%.417%2
FRES Offense1451%50%21.531.4267.18.512.4266.381.426%41%.385%1.6

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: NR
Toledo's Offense Rating: NR
Toledo's Defense Rating: NR
2018 Talent Rating:  #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Toledo's 2018 Expected Record: -
Toledo's 2018 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.0  #66
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.2  #28
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.4  #102

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo:    Fresno State: 11.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 2.0   Fresno State: 17.4




Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: 11.2 NR
Fresno State's Offense Rating: NR
Fresno State's Defense Rating: NR
2018 Talent Rating:  #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Fresno State's 2018 Expected Record: -
Fresno State's 2018 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.4  #16
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5  #37
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.5  #12

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482


Toledo Scoring
Offense: 40.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 35
Defense: 30.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.6

Toledo's 2018 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Fresno State 37
Toledo 23

Total Points: 60

Based on Last 4 Games
Fresno State 38
Toledo 19

Total Points: 57

Based on Entire Season
Fresno State 36
Toledo 26

Total Points: 62
Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 34.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.2
Defense: 14.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 15

Fresno State's 2018 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 10
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 9 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
201809/29Fresno State49Toledo27Fresno State -10Fresno State61.0Over
201609/17Toledo52Fresno State17Toledo -20Toledo57.5Over
200809/20Toledo54Fresno State55
200509/27Fresno State44Toledo14
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Fresno State312 Overs
Toledo110 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 12 - 02 - 00 - 0
Road Teams1 - 30 - 20 - 00 - 2

(#) TOL at (#) FRES
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTOLFRES
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #66 #16
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #80 #81
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Toledo on Offense
CategoryCat
TOL OffFRES Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #28 #12
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Toledo Run Game
CategoryCat
TOL OffFRES Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak - NR
Toledo Pass Game
CategoryCat
TOL OffFRES Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Fresno State on Offense
CategoryCatFRES OffTOL Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #37 #102
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Fresno State Run Game
CategoryCat
FRES OffTOL Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak - NR
Fresno State Pass Game
CategoryCatFRES OffTOL Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
FRES 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'18 Profile: Down to CFP Hopefuls

TOL 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'18 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bulldog Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 77° - Wind: 7 mph
Rematch from Week 5
Fresno State -10.0 (61.0)
Fresno State won vs Toledo this year (49-27)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
TOL's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

FRES's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD