Wed, Nov 4 2026
·
Week 10
·
🏟 Hornet Stadium
Sacramento, CA
·
Turf
·
21,195 cap
Toledo✈ 1,993 mi-3 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Toledo wins
Lean
Toledo 2026 Schedule
Toledo's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Toledo at Michigan State | +7.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Toledo vs Central Connecticut | -17.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Toledo vs Temple | -3 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Toledo vs San Diego State | +4 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Toledo at Ball State | -15 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Toledo vs Buffalo | -8 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Toledo at Eastern Michigan | -3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Toledo vs Western Michigan | -3 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/4 | Toledo at Sacramento State | -9 | — | — | — | — |
| Wed 11/11 | Toledo vs Massachusetts | -26 | — | — | — | — |
| Wed 11/18 | Toledo vs Bowling Green | -8 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 11/27 | Toledo at Ohio | -3.5 | — | — | — | — |
Sacramento State 2026 Schedule
Sacramento State's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/29 | Sacramento State at Eastern Michigan | +8 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/5 | Sacramento State vs Mississippi Valley State | -6 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Sacramento State at Fresno State | +20 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Sacramento State vs North Dakota State | +14.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Sacramento State vs Massachusetts | -14.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/10 | Sacramento State at Bowling Green | +8 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Sacramento State vs Ohio | +3 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Sacramento State at Ball State | -3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 10/30 | Sacramento State vs Kent State | -3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Wed 11/4 | Sacramento State vs Toledo | +9 | — | — | — | — |
| Wed 11/11 | Sacramento State at Central Michigan | +11 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/28 | Sacramento State at Hawai'i | +16.5 | — | — | — | — |
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Toledo Edge
Toledo +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Toledo Edge
Toledo +6.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Toledo
Mike Jacobs #77
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Cris Reisert
Yr 1
#67
DC
Jahmal Brown
Yr 1
#68
Sacramento State
Alonzo Carter #77
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Eric Kiesau
Yr 1
#118
DC
Adam Clark
Yr 1
#68
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓