Sacramento State at Hawai'i Week 13 College Football Matchup Sacramento State at Hawai'i Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 28 2026 · Week 13 · 🏟 Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex Honolulu, HI · Turf · 9,000 cap
Sacramento State✈ 2,461 mi-3 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available. Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance. Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Sacramento State
19
Hawai'i
26
P&R Line Hawai'i -7
P&R Total O/U 44
Confidence 28 New FBS Team
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Sacramento State wins
Toss-up
🛋 Sacramento State Coming off BYE
Sacramento State 2026 Schedule
Sacramento State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29Sacramento State at Eastern Michigan-4
Sat 9/5Sacramento State vs Mississippi Valley State-18.5
Sat 9/12Sacramento State at Fresno State+9.5
Sat 9/19Sacramento State vs North Dakota State+2.5
Sat 9/26Sacramento State vs Massachusetts-29
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/10Sacramento State at Bowling Green-3.5
Sat 10/17Sacramento State vs Ohio-4.5
Sat 10/24Sacramento State at Ball State-15
Fri 10/30Sacramento State vs Kent State-15.5
Wed 11/4Sacramento State vs Toledo+6.5
Wed 11/11Sacramento State at Central Michigan+0.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/28Sacramento State at Hawai'i+7
Hawai'i 2026 Schedule
Hawai'i's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29Hawai'i at Stanford-5.5
Sat 9/5Hawai'i vs UNLV+1
Sat 9/12Hawai'i vs New Mexico State-17.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/26Hawai'i at Wyoming-8.5
Sat 10/3Hawai'i vs San José State-19
Sat 10/10Hawai'i at Arizona State+8.5
Sat 10/17Hawai'i vs New Mexico-1.5
Sat 10/24Hawai'i at Northern Illinois-14.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/7Hawai'i at UTEP-14
Sat 11/14Hawai'i vs North Dakota State-2
Sat 11/21Hawai'i at Nevada-15
Sat 11/28Hawai'i vs Sacramento State-7
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Hawai'i Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Sacramento State #114
-9.9
Hawai'i #85
-2.2
Offense Rating
Sacramento State #113
9.7
Hawai'i #65
15.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Sacramento State #111
19.6
Hawai'i #100
18.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Sacramento State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Sacramento State
0.00
Hawai'i #24
1.25
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Sacramento State
0.00
Hawai'i #56
1.00
Sacramento State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Sacramento State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Sacramento State #16
52.7
Hawai'i #50
49.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Sacramento State #12
21.8
Hawai'i #50
33.8
Sacramento State +3.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Sacramento State
Alonzo Carter #77
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Eric Kiesau Yr 1 #118
DC Adam Clark Yr 1 #68
Staff Rating
2.39 #98
Hawai'i
Timmy Chang #131
22–29 (43%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Anthony Arceneaux Yr 1 #67
DC Dennis Thurman Yr 3 #102
Staff Rating
2.05 #123
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself