Toledo at Sacramento State - 2026 Matchup Preview

Toledo Rockets at Sacramento State Hornets

Wednesday, November 4th 2026 (12:00 PM EST)
Hornet Stadium - Sacramento, CA (Mid-American)

Rockets (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Jacobs (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (17 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.9 - 2.1 (#8)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)

SAC 2nd straight Home Game
TOL coming off BYE
SAC is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Toledo -9 (SP+ TOL -11)
Projected Score: TOL: 24 - SAC: 15 (38)
TOL Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
TOL Travel: 1994 miles, 3 hrs ahead

Hornets (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Alonzo Carter (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 17 - 20 (17 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.1 - 4.9 (#50)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 9)

Matchup
Schedules
TOL Players
SAC Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Toledo's 2026 Schedule

Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Toledo at Michigan State	+7.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/12	Toledo vs Central Connecticut	-17.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/19	Toledo vs Temple	-3	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/26	Toledo vs San Diego State	+4	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/3	Toledo at Ball State	-15	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/10	Toledo vs Buffalo	-8	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/17	Toledo at Eastern Michigan	-3.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/24	Toledo vs Western Michigan	-3	—	—	—	—
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/4	Toledo at Sacramento State	-9	—	—	—	—
Wed 11/11	Toledo vs Massachusetts	-26	—	—	—	—
Wed 11/18	Toledo vs Bowling Green	-8	—	—	—	—
Fri 11/27	Toledo at Ohio	-3.5	—	—	—	—

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule

Sacramento State's 2026 Schedule

Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/29	Sacramento State at Eastern Michigan	+8	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/5	Sacramento State vs Mississippi Valley State	-6	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/12	Sacramento State at Fresno State	+20	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/19	Sacramento State vs North Dakota State	+14.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/26	Sacramento State vs Massachusetts	-14.5	—	—	—	—
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/10	Sacramento State at Bowling Green	+8	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/17	Sacramento State vs Ohio	+3	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/24	Sacramento State at Ball State	-3.5	—	—	—	—
Fri 10/30	Sacramento State vs Kent State	-3.5	—	—	—	—
Wed 11/4	Sacramento State vs Toledo	+9	—	—	—	—
Wed 11/11	Sacramento State at Central Michigan	+11	—	—	—	—
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/28	Sacramento State at Hawai'i	+16.5	—	—	—	—

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Sacramento State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL	#63 (.18)	44% (53)	30.8	43% (70)	2.91 (73)	178	44% (40)	238	3.86 (55)	#2 (-.07)	33% (4)	13.3	39% (29)	28% (1)	2.45 (4)	74.6	1.2	1.6
SAC		0%	17	0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%	20	0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
SAC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Offense	13	30.8	17.3	43.6%	3.86	1.2	21	416	178	238	4.9	49%	49%	43%	44%	13%	.18
SAC Defense	1	20	20	0%	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Defense	13	13.3	16.7	33.3%	2.45	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	52%	45%	39%	28%	20%	-.07
SAC Offense	1	17	17	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Toledo	13	30:26	21.2	40%	24%	8.5	74.6	1.2	1.6	7.1	2.8	3	31.2
Sacramento State	1	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	100

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Offense	13	49% (69)	43% (70)	36.2	177.7	4.9	22 (40)	.12 (64)	2.91 (73)	78% (27)	9% (53)	0.9 (95)
SAC Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-		0	0%	0%	0

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Defense	13	52% (98)	39% (29)	-	-	-	-	-.01 (13)	2.36 (7)	67% (39)	13% (7)	0.87 (22)
SAC Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%	0

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Offense	13	49% (66)	44% (40)	19.7	30.7	238.1	7.8	12.1	27 (22)	10 (60)	.28 (55)	1.6 (62)	32% (71)	29% (79)	.2 (112)	4% (11)	1.9 (115)
SAC Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Defense	13	45% (30)	28% (1)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (55)	-.08 (1)	1.6 (108)	35% (22)	19% (1)	-.01 (1)	7% (15)	2.2 (124)
SAC Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: -0.12 #70
Toledo's Offense Rating: 14.74 #80
Toledo's Defense Rating: 14.86 #62
2026 Talent Rating: 544.00 #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #83
Toledo's 2026 Expected Record: 9.9 - 2.1
Toledo's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.5 #108
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.7 #121
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #84

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 467.85
Average Power Five Talent: 872.28
Average FBS Talent: 677.28

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: -0.12 Sacramento State: -14.76

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: -11.5 Sacramento State: -22.7

Sacramento State's Power Ratings
Sacramento State's Power Rating: -14.76 #119
Sacramento State's Offense Rating: 8.69 #118
Sacramento State's Defense Rating: 20.51 #114
2026 Talent Rating: 437.00 #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #83
Sacramento State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.1 - 4.9
Sacramento State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -22.7 #130
Sacramento State's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.1 #127
Sacramento State's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.9 #130

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 467.85
Average Power Five Talent: 872.28
Average FBS Talent: 677.28

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.3
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 16.7

Toledo's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Toledo 24
Sacramento State 15

Projected Total Points: 38

Sacramento State Scoring
Offense: 17 PPG
Offense at Home: 17
Defense: 20 PPG
Defense at Home: 20

Sacramento State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Sacramento State	0	0	0 Overs
Toledo	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

(#70) TOL at (#119) SAC

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TOL	SAC
Game ControlGC	#69	#12
Momentum ControlMC	#22	NR
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#70	#119
SP+SP+	#108	#130
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#93	#119
Blue ChipsBC%	#83	#83

Toledo Notes(2/6) HC Jacobs (Mercer) is 94-23 as a head coach
(2/6) OC Reisert was HC @ Gard Webb, DC from Mercer
(2/6) QB Khamoni Robinson from Lenoir-Rhyne as QB1?
(2/6) Jacobs brought 13 portals from Mercer w him
(2/6) RB CJ Miller (Mer) exp'd, there's depth here
(2/6) WR has parts, Dabbs (Mer) really productive
(2/6) OL has 6 w good exp & prod, 3 are FCS portals
(2/6) DTs light and inexp'd. DEs have played, but ?
(2/6) LB corp looks good, although depth is green
(2/6) DBs no clue, top 2 are FCS, not much exp after
Toledo Injury Report

Sacramento State Notes(2/15) 2025: (7-5), '24: (3-9), '23: (8-5), '22: (12-1)
(2/15) Lost top 2 QB, 3 RB, 1 WR from '25 via portal
(2/15) HC Carter was RB coach @ Arizona past 2 years
Sacramento State Injury Report

Toledo on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	SAC Def
Game ControlGC	#100	#12
Momentum ControlMC	#41	NR
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#53	NR
ExplosiveExp	#76	NR
PPAPPA	#63	NR
PowerPwr	#80	#114
SP+SP+	#121	#130
Pts POPPO	#55	NR
HavocHav	#22	NR

Toledo Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	SAC Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#70	NR
Run ExplRExp	#95	NR
PPAExp	#64	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#73	NR
Stuff RateStuff	#86	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Toledo Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	SAC Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#40	NR
Pass ExplPExl	#62	NR
PPAExp	#55	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#53	NR
DB HavocDB	#11	NR

Sacramento State on Offense


CategoryCat	SAC Off	TOL Def
Game ControlGC	#16	#31
Momentum ControlMC	NR	#16
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	#4
ExplosiveExp	NR	#22
PPAPPA	NR	#2
PowerPwr	#118	#62
SP+SP+	#127	#84
Pts POPPO	NR	#4
HavocHav	NR	#5

Sacramento State Run Game


CategoryCat	SAC Off	TOL Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	#29
Run ExplRExp	NR	#22
PPAExp	NR	#13
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	#7
Stuff RateStuff	NR	#27
TackleTak	-	NR

Sacramento State Pass Game


CategoryCat	SAC Off	TOL Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	#1
Pass ExplPExl	NR	#108
PPAExp	NR	#1
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	#7
DB HavocDB	NR	#15

Program Comparison
SAC 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

TOL 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'26 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Hornet Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

No Matchups Past 4 Years

TOL's OC Cris Reisert (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
John Alan Richter	17	25	68%	153	3	1	6.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
CJ Miller (Tr)	168	953	14	5.7	79
Connor Walendzak	32	99	0	3.1	11
Michael Drennen II	9	60	0	6.7	15
Dane Nauman	9	40	0	4.4	12

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Adjatay Dabbs (Tr)	45	856	8	19.0	84
Kalvin Gilbert	46	653	7	14.2	65
CJ Miller (Tr)	26	314	3	12.1	59
Peyton Strickland	24	226	4	9.4	65

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Jahmal Brown (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Armorion Smith (Tr)	36	2	0	0	1
Langston Long	33	5	0	0	0
Ezra Odinjor (Tr)	28	3	1	2	1
Nicholas Thompson	24	2	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ezra Odinjor (Tr)	28	3	1	2	1
Nicholas Thompson	24	2	1	0	0
Isaac Prince	5	3	1	0	0
Armorion Smith (Tr)	36	2	0	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Armorion Smith (Tr)	36	2	0	1
Dylan Hohler	7	1	1	1
Donovan Watkins (Tr)	2	0	0	1

SAC's OC Eric Kiesau (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Carson Conklin (Tr)	47	96	49%	354	1	2	3.7
Savion Red	1	1	100%	28	0	0	28.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Davion Godley (Tr)	94	512	4	5.4	52
Sam Adams II	36	181	3	5.0	34
Savion Red	12	58	0	4.8	13
Cincere Rhaney (Tr)	5	19	0	3.8	8

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Williams	11	170	1	15.5	26
Sam Adams II	9	134	2	14.9	33
Matthew Coleman (Tr)	20	131	1	6.6	13
Jace Wilson	3	56	0	18.7	45

View Sacramento State's Full Roster

SAC's DC Adam Clark (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PD
Dionte Thornton (Tr)	10	0	2
Tim Thomas (Tr)	6	0	0
Boogsie Silvera (Tr)	5	0	0
Deven Wright	5	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	PD
Dionte Thornton (Tr)	10	0	2
Tim Thomas (Tr)	6	0	0
Boogsie Silvera (Tr)	5	0	0
Deven Wright	5	1	0

Pass D	Tack	PD
Dionte Thornton (Tr)	10	2
Tim Thomas (Tr)	6	0
Boogsie Silvera (Tr)	5	0