Sat, Sep 5 2026
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Spartan Stadium
East Lansing, MI
·
Turf
·
75,005 cap
Toledo✈ 86 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toledo
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Toledo entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Toledo wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Toledo wins
Solid
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Toledo
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Toledo 2026 Schedule
Toledo's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Toledo at Michigan State | +7.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Toledo vs Central Connecticut | -17.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Toledo vs Temple | -3 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Toledo vs San Diego State | +4 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Toledo at Ball State | -15 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Toledo vs Buffalo | -8 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Toledo at Eastern Michigan | -3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Toledo vs Western Michigan | -3 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/4 | Toledo at Sacramento State | -9 | — | — | — | — |
| Wed 11/11 | Toledo vs Massachusetts | -26 | — | — | — | — |
| Wed 11/18 | Toledo vs Bowling Green | -8 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 11/27 | Toledo at Ohio | -3.5 | — | — | — | — |
Michigan State 2026 Schedule
Michigan State's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Michigan State vs Toledo | -7.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Michigan State vs Eastern Michigan | -13.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Michigan State at Notre Dame | +29 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Michigan State vs Nebraska | +4.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Michigan State at Wisconsin | +4 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Michigan State vs Illinois | +7 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Michigan State vs Northwestern | +0 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Michigan State at UCLA | +9 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/7 | Michigan State at Michigan | +20.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Michigan State vs Washington | +14 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Michigan State vs Oregon | +24.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | Michigan State at Rutgers | +3 | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Toledo
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Toledo
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Toledo
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Toledo Edge
Toledo +0.97
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Toledo Edge
Toledo +23.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Toledo
Mike Jacobs #77
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Cris Reisert
Yr 1
#67
DC
Jahmal Brown
Yr 1
#68
Michigan State
Pat Fitzgerald #32
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Nick Sheridan
Yr 1
#35
DC
Joe Rossi
Yr 3
#50
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓