Sat, Oct 3 2026
·
Week 5
·
🏟 Scheumann Stadium
Muncie, IN
·
Turf
·
22,500 cap
Toledo✈ 137 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toledo
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Toledo entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Toledo wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Toledo wins
Solid
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Toledo
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Toledo 2026 Schedule
Toledo's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Toledo at Michigan State | -4 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Toledo vs Central Connecticut | -27.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Toledo vs Temple | -11 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Toledo vs San Diego State | -1.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Toledo at Ball State | -23.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Toledo vs Buffalo | -15.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Toledo at Eastern Michigan | -13 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Toledo vs Western Michigan | -10 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/4 | Toledo at Sacramento State | -6.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Wed 11/11 | Toledo vs Massachusetts | -32 | — | — | — | — |
| Wed 11/18 | Toledo vs Bowling Green | -17.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 11/27 | Toledo at Ohio | -8.5 | — | — | — | — |
Ball State 2026 Schedule
Ball State's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Ball State at Ohio State | +38 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Ball State vs Stony Brook | -1 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Ball State at Liberty | +19 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Ball State at Kent State | +7 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Ball State vs Toledo | +23.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Ball State at Northwestern | +27.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Ball State at Bowling Green | +13.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Ball State vs Sacramento State | +15 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/4 | Ball State at Massachusetts | -7.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Wed 11/11 | Ball State vs Buffalo | +10.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Tue 11/17 | Ball State at Ohio | +17.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | Ball State vs Central Michigan | +13 | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Toledo
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Toledo
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Toledo
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Toledo Edge
Toledo +1.06
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Toledo Edge
Toledo +38.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Toledo
Mike Jacobs #77
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Cris Reisert
Yr 1
#67
DC
Jahmal Brown
Yr 1
#68
Ball State
Mike Uremovich #121
4–8 (33%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Mike Uremovich
Yr 2
#138
DC
Jeff Knowles
Yr 3
#138
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓