Sacramento State at Eastern Michigan Week 1 College Football Matchup Sacramento State at Eastern Michigan Matchup - Week 1
Sat, Aug 29 2026 · Week 1 · 🏟 Rynearson Stadium Ypsilanti, MI · Turf · 30,200 cap
Sacramento State✈ 1,987 mi+3 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available. Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance. Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Sacramento State
19
Eastern Michigan
27
P&R Line Eastern Michigan -8
P&R Total O/U 45.5
Confidence 28 New FBS Team
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Sacramento State wins
Solid
Sacramento State 2026 Schedule
Sacramento State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29Sacramento State at Eastern Michigan+8
Sat 9/5Sacramento State vs Mississippi Valley State-6
Sat 9/12Sacramento State at Fresno State+20
Sat 9/19Sacramento State vs North Dakota State+14.5
Sat 9/26Sacramento State vs Massachusetts-14.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/10Sacramento State at Bowling Green+8
Sat 10/17Sacramento State vs Ohio+3
Sat 10/24Sacramento State at Ball State-3.5
Fri 10/30Sacramento State vs Kent State-3.5
Wed 11/4Sacramento State vs Toledo+9
Wed 11/11Sacramento State at Central Michigan+11
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/28Sacramento State at Hawai'i+16.5
Eastern Michigan 2026 Schedule
Eastern Michigan's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29Eastern Michigan vs Sacramento State-8
Fri 9/4Eastern Michigan vs San José State-8.5
Sat 9/12Eastern Michigan at Michigan State+13.5
Sat 9/19Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin+15.5
Sat 9/26Eastern Michigan vs Lindenwood-11.5
Sat 10/3Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts-15
Sat 10/10Eastern Michigan at Akron-1
Sat 10/17Eastern Michigan vs Toledo+3.5
Sat 10/24Eastern Michigan at Ohio+2.5
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/4Eastern Michigan vs Central Michigan+0.5
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/17Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan+8
Tue 11/24Eastern Michigan vs Kent State-9
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Eastern Michigan Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Sacramento State #119
-11.8
Eastern Michigan #109
-8.5
Offense Rating
Sacramento State #118
8.7
Eastern Michigan #110
10.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Sacramento State #114
20.5
Eastern Michigan #108
18.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Sacramento State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Sacramento State
0.00
Eastern Michigan #107
0.27
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Sacramento State
0.00
Eastern Michigan #114
1.27
Sacramento State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Sacramento State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Sacramento State #16
52.7
Eastern Michigan #107
32.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Sacramento State #12
21.8
Eastern Michigan #106
50.5
Sacramento State +19.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Sacramento State
Alonzo Carter #77
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Eric Kiesau Yr 1 #118
DC Adam Clark Yr 1 #68
Staff Rating
2.39 #98
Eastern Michigan
Chris Creighton #128
61–83 (43%) · Yr 13 at school
OC Mike Piatkowski Yr 3 #126
DC Tate Omli Yr 1 #68
Staff Rating
1.90 #126
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself