Sat, Sep 19 2026
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Hornet Stadium
Sacramento, CA
·
Turf
·
21,195 cap
North Dakota State✈ 1,368 mi-2 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Sacramento State wins
Strong
North Dakota State 2026 Schedule
North Dakota State's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/29 | North Dakota State vs Jacksonville State | -7.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/5 | North Dakota State vs Fordham | -24 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | North Dakota State at Air Force | -3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | North Dakota State at Sacramento State | -2.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/3 | North Dakota State vs Wyoming | -14 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | North Dakota State at UNLV | +5.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | North Dakota State vs Nevada | -20.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | North Dakota State at New Mexico | +3 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/31 | North Dakota State vs UTEP | -19.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/14 | North Dakota State at Hawai'i | +2 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | North Dakota State vs Northern Illinois | -20 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | North Dakota State at San José State | -15 | — | — | — | — |
Sacramento State 2026 Schedule
Sacramento State's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/29 | Sacramento State at Eastern Michigan | -4 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/5 | Sacramento State vs Mississippi Valley State | -18.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Sacramento State at Fresno State | +9.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Sacramento State vs North Dakota State | +2.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Sacramento State vs Massachusetts | -29 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/10 | Sacramento State at Bowling Green | -3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Sacramento State vs Ohio | -4.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Sacramento State at Ball State | -15 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 10/30 | Sacramento State vs Kent State | -15.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Wed 11/4 | Sacramento State vs Toledo | +6.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Wed 11/11 | Sacramento State at Central Michigan | +0.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/28 | Sacramento State at Hawai'i | +7 | — | — | — | — |
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
North Dakota State Edge
North Dakota State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Sacramento State Edge
Sacramento State +52.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
North Dakota State
Tim Polasek #14
26–3 (90%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Dan Larson
Yr 2
#15
DC
Grant Olson
Yr 3
#31
Sacramento State
Alonzo Carter #77
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Eric Kiesau
Yr 1
#118
DC
Adam Clark
Yr 1
#68
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓