Sat, Nov 8 2025
·
Week 11
·
🏟 Centennial Bank Stadium
Jonesboro, AR
·
Turf
·
30,964 cap
Southern Miss✈ 321 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Southern Miss
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Southern Miss entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Southern Miss wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Southern Miss wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Southern Miss -6.5
O/U 54.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Southern Miss
· 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Southern Miss 2025 Schedule
Southern Miss's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Southern Miss vs Mississippi State | +11.5L17–34 | 59.5 | L17–34 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Southern Miss vs Jackson State | -13.5W38–20 | 53.0 | W38–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Southern Miss vs App State | +3.0W38–22 | 55.5 | W38–22 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech | +3.0L20–30 | 51.5 | L20–30 | U | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Southern Miss vs Jacksonville State | -4.5W42–25 | 55.5 | W42–25 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/9 | Southern Miss at Georgia Southern | -3.0W38–35 | 59.5 | W38–35 | O | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Southern Miss at Louisiana | -4.5W22–10 | 54.5 | W22–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Southern Miss vs UL Monroe | -14.0W49–21 | 48.5 | W49–21 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/8 | Southern Miss at Arkansas State | -6.5W27–21 | 54.5 | W27–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Southern Miss vs Texas State | -3.0L14–41 | 65.5 | L14–41 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Southern Miss at South Alabama | -2.5L35–42 | 53.0 | L35–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Southern Miss vs Troy | -6.5L18–28 | 50.5 | L18–28 | U | N |
| Tue 12/23 | Southern Miss vs Western Kentucky | -3.0L16–27 | 59.0 | L16–27 | U | N |
Arkansas State 2025 Schedule
Arkansas State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Arkansas State vs Southeast Missouri State | -15.5W42–24 | 59.5 | W42–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Arkansas State vs Arkansas | +23.5L14–56 | 62.0 | L14–56 | O | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Arkansas State vs Iowa State | +21.0L16–24 | 55.5 | L16–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Arkansas State at Kennesaw State | -4.5L21–28 | 57.5 | L21–28 | U | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Arkansas State at UL Monroe | +1.5L16–28 | 55.5 | L16–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Arkansas State vs Texas State | +14.0W31–30 | 63.5 | W31–30 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/14 | Arkansas State at South Alabama | +8.5W15–14 | 57.5 | W15–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Arkansas State vs Georgia Southern | +1.5W34–24 | 59.5 | W34–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Arkansas State at Troy | +7.5W23–10 | 52.5 | W23–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Arkansas State vs Southern Miss | +6.5L21–27 | 54.5 | L21–27 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/20 | Arkansas State vs Louisiana | -2.5L30–34 | 54.5 | L30–34 | O | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Arkansas State at App State | +1.0W30–29 | 54.5 | W30–29 | O | Y |
| Thu 12/18 | Arkansas State vs Missouri State | -1.5W34–28 | 55.5 | W34–28 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Southern Miss
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Southern Miss Edge
Southern Miss +0.13
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Southern Miss Edge
Southern Miss +22.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Southern Miss with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Southern Miss
Charles Huff #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Blake Anderson
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jason Semore
Yr 1
#1
Arkansas State
Butch Jones #1
18–31 (37%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Keith Heckendorf
Yr 3
#1
DC
Rob Harley
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓