Sat, Sep 6 2025
·
Week 2
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 War Memorial Stadium
Little Rock, AR
·
Turf
·
54,120 cap
Arkansas State✈ 120 miSame TZ
Arkansas✈ 138 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Arkansas wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Arkansas -23.5
O/U 62.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Arkansas
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Arkansas State 2025 Schedule
Arkansas State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Arkansas State vs Southeast Missouri State | -15.5W42–24 | 59.5 | W42–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Arkansas State vs Arkansas | +23.5L14–56 | 62.0 | L14–56 | O | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Arkansas State vs Iowa State | +21.0L16–24 | 55.5 | L16–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Arkansas State at Kennesaw State | -4.5L21–28 | 57.5 | L21–28 | U | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Arkansas State at UL Monroe | +1.5L16–28 | 55.5 | L16–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Arkansas State vs Texas State | +14.0W31–30 | 63.5 | W31–30 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/14 | Arkansas State at South Alabama | +8.5W15–14 | 57.5 | W15–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Arkansas State vs Georgia Southern | +1.5W34–24 | 59.5 | W34–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Arkansas State at Troy | +7.5W23–10 | 52.5 | W23–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Arkansas State vs Southern Miss | +6.5L21–27 | 54.5 | L21–27 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/20 | Arkansas State vs Louisiana | -2.5L30–34 | 54.5 | L30–34 | O | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Arkansas State at App State | +1.0W30–29 | 54.5 | W30–29 | O | Y |
| Thu 12/18 | Arkansas State vs Missouri State | -1.5W34–28 | 55.5 | W34–28 | O | Y |
Arkansas 2025 Schedule
Arkansas's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Arkansas vs Alabama A&M | -45.5W52–7 | 62.5 | W52–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Arkansas vs Arkansas State | -23.5W56–14 | 62.0 | W56–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Arkansas at Ole Miss | +3.5L35–41 | 60.5 | L35–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Arkansas at Memphis | -7.0L31–32 | 59.5 | L31–32 | O | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Arkansas vs Notre Dame | +5.5L13–56 | 64.5 | L13–56 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Arkansas at Tennessee | +10.0L31–34 | 68.5 | L31–34 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Arkansas vs Texas A&M | +7.5L42–45 | 57.5 | L42–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Arkansas vs Auburn | -2.5L24–33 | 55.5 | L24–33 | O | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Arkansas vs Mississippi State | -5.5L35–38 | 66.5 | L35–38 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Arkansas at LSU | +4.0L22–23 | 58.5 | L22–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Arkansas at Texas | +10.5L37–52 | 57.5 | L37–52 | O | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Arkansas vs Missouri | +4.5L17–31 | 54.5 | L17–31 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Arkansas
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Arkansas State Edge
Arkansas State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Arkansas Edge
Arkansas +17.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Arkansas
3 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Arkansas
95.4 — 3.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Arkansas won by 42
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Arkansas with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Arkansas State
Butch Jones #1
18–31 (37%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Keith Heckendorf
Yr 3
#1
DC
Rob Harley
Yr 3
#1
Arkansas
Sam Pittman #1
29–31 (48%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Bobby Petrino
Yr 2
#1
DC
Travis Williams
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓