Thu, Aug 28 2025
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Malone Stadium
Monroe, LA
·
Turf
·
30,427 cap
St. Francis (PA)✈ 925 mi-1 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2025 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2024 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
St. Francis (PA) wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
UL Monroe -31.0
O/U 47.0
Bovada
St. Francis (PA) 2025 Schedule
St. Francis (PA)'s 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | St. Francis (PA) at UL Monroe | +31.0L0–29 | 47.0 | L0–29 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | St. Francis (PA) at Buffalo | +37.0L6–45 | 48.0 | L6–45 | O | N |
UL Monroe 2025 Schedule
UL Monroe's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | UL Monroe vs St. Francis (PA) | -31.0W29–0 | 47.0 | W29–0 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | UL Monroe at Alabama | +34.0L0–73 | 50.0 | L0–73 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | UL Monroe at UTEP | +5.5W31–25 | 47.5 | W31–25 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | UL Monroe vs Arkansas State | -1.5W28–16 | 55.5 | W28–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | UL Monroe at Northwestern | +12.5L7–42 | 43.5 | L7–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/11 | UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina | -3.0L8–23 | 46.5 | L8–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | UL Monroe vs Troy | +4.5L14–37 | 45.5 | L14–37 | O | N |
| Sat 10/25 | UL Monroe at Southern Miss | +14.0L21–49 | 48.5 | L21–49 | O | N |
| Sat 11/1 | UL Monroe vs Old Dominion | +16.5L6–31 | 55.5 | L6–31 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | UL Monroe vs South Alabama | +4.0L14–26 | 49.5 | L14–26 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | UL Monroe at Texas State | +20.5L14–31 | 59.5 | L14–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | UL Monroe at Louisiana | +10.5L27–30 | 47.5 | L27–30 | O | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
St. Francis (PA) Edge
St. Francis (PA) +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
St. Francis (PA) Edge
St. Francis (PA) +12.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓