Sat, Sep 6 2025
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Week 2
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🏟 Canvas Stadium
Fort Collins, CO
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Turf
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41,000 cap
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2025 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2024 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Colorado State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Colorado State -35.0
O/U 52.5
Bovada
Northern Colorado 2025 Schedule
Northern Colorado's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/6 | Northern Colorado at Colorado State | +35.0L17–21 | 52.5 | L17–21 | U | Y |
Colorado State 2025 Schedule
Colorado State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Colorado State at Washington | +20.5L21–38 | 52.5 | L21–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Colorado State vs Northern Colorado | -35.0W21–17 | 52.5 | W21–17 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | Colorado State vs UTSA | +4.5L16–17 | 58.5 | L16–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Colorado State vs Washington State | -4.5L3–20 | 48.5 | L3–20 | U | N |
| Fri 10/3 | Colorado State at San Diego State | +4.5L24–45 | 40.5 | L24–45 | O | N |
| Fri 10/10 | Colorado State vs Fresno State | +5.5W49–21 | 47.5 | W49–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Colorado State vs Hawai'i | -2.5L19–31 | 53.5 | L19–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Colorado State at Wyoming | +5.5L0–28 | 46.5 | L0–28 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/8 | Colorado State vs UNLV | +5.5L10–42 | 60.5 | L10–42 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Colorado State at New Mexico | +15.5L17–20 | 53.5 | L17–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Colorado State at Boise State | +17.5L21–49 | 46.5 | L21–49 | O | N |
| Fri 11/28 | Colorado State vs Air Force | +2.5L21–42 | 47.5 | L21–42 | O | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Northern Colorado Edge
Northern Colorado +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Colorado State Edge
Colorado State +44.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓