Marshall at Middle Tennessee Week 4 College Football Matchup Marshall at Middle Tennessee Matchup - Week 4
Sat, Sep 20 2025 · Week 4 · 🏟 Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium"" Murfreesboro, TN · Turf · 31,000 cap
Marshall✈ 280 mi-1 hr TZ
Away
42 28
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Marshall
27
Middle Tennessee
25
P&R Line Marshall -2.5
P&R Total O/U 52
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Marshall -2.5 · O/U 46.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Middle Tennessee, while Game Control favors Marshall. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Middle Tennessee wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Marshall wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Marshall -2.5
O/U 46.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Marshall · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Marshall 2025 Schedule
Marshall's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Marshall at Georgia+39.5L7–4555.5L7–45UY
Sat 9/6Marshall vs Missouri State-7.0L20–2153.5L20–21UN
Sat 9/13Marshall vs Eastern Kentucky-14.5W38–749.5W38–7UY
Sat 9/20Marshall at Middle Tennessee-2.5W42–2846.5W42–28OY
Sat 9/27Marshall at Louisiana-2.5L51–5447.5L51–54ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/11Marshall vs Old Dominion+14.5W48–2457.5W48–24OY
Sat 10/18Marshall vs Texas State+3.0W40–3765.5W40–37OY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/30Marshall at Coastal Carolina-7.5L27–4455.5L27–44ON
Sat 11/8Marshall vs James Madison+13.5L23–3553.5L23–35OY
Sat 11/15Marshall at Georgia State-9.5W30–1859.5W30–18UY
Sat 11/22Marshall at App State-3.5L24–2657.5L24–26UN
Sat 11/29Marshall vs Georgia Southern-10.5L19–2461.5L19–24UN
Middle Tennessee 2025 Schedule
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Middle Tennessee vs Austin Peay-14.5L14–3453.5L14–34UN
Sat 9/6Middle Tennessee at Wisconsin+28.5L10–4245.5L10–42ON
Sat 9/13Middle Tennessee at Nevada+9.0W14–1350.0W14–13UY
Sat 9/20Middle Tennessee vs Marshall+2.5L28–4246.5L28–42ON
Sat 9/27Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State+7.0L16–2454.5L16–24UN
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/8Middle Tennessee vs Missouri State+2.5L20–2252.5L20–22UY
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/22Middle Tennessee at Delaware+9.5L28–3155.5L28–31OY
Wed 10/29Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State+4.5L21–2454.0L21–24UY
Sat 11/8Middle Tennessee vs Florida International-1.5L30–5650.5L30–56ON
Sat 11/15Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky+13.5L26–4251.5L26–42ON
Sat 11/22Middle Tennessee vs Sam Houston-6.5W31–1753.5W31–17UY
Sat 11/29Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State+3.5W31–2452.0W31–24OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Marshall PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Marshall
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Marshall
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Marshall
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Marshall #56
+0.405
Middle Tennessee #78
+0.316
Marshall Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Marshall #28
+0.790
Middle Tennessee #88
+0.546
Marshall Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Marshall #67
0.157
Middle Tennessee #67
0.157
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Even
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Marshall #52
+7.920
Middle Tennessee #117
+6.821
Marshall Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Marshall #37
+0.897
Middle Tennessee #59
+0.818
Marshall Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Marshall #12
67.8
Middle Tennessee #92
71.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Marshall Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Marshall Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Marshall
-3.1
Middle Tennessee
-17.5
Offense Rating
Marshall
13.9
Middle Tennessee
5.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Marshall
17.0
Middle Tennessee
22.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Middle Tennessee Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Marshall #93
0.00
Middle Tennessee #98
0.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Marshall #90
1.50
Middle Tennessee #54
0.50
Middle Tennessee +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Marshall Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Marshall #1
47.9
Middle Tennessee #1
11.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Marshall #70
38.5
Middle Tennessee #120
71.8
Marshall +36.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Marshall
1 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Marshall
23.0 — 45.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Marshall won by 14
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Marshall
Tony Gibson #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Rod Smith Yr 1 #1
DC Shannon Morrison Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Middle Tennessee
Derek Mason #1
3–9 (25%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Bodie Reeder Yr 2 #1
DC Brian Stewart Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself