Sat, Oct 18 2025
·
Week 8
·
🏟 Joan C. Edwards Stadium
Huntington, WV
·
Turf
·
38,019 cap
Texas State✈ 1,062 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Texas State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Texas State -3
O/U 65.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Texas State
· 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Texas State 2025 Schedule
Texas State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Texas State vs Eastern Michigan | -14.0W52–27 | 58.5 | W52–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Texas State at UTSA | +4.5W43–36 | 64.5 | W43–36 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Texas State at Arizona State | +18.5L15–34 | 61.5 | L15–34 | U | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Texas State vs Nicholls | -32.5W35–3 | 57.0 | W35–3 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Texas State at Arkansas State | -14.0L30–31 | 63.5 | L30–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Texas State vs Troy | -7.5L41–48 | 53.5 | L41–48 | O | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Texas State at Marshall | -3.0L37–40 | 65.5 | L37–40 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/28 | Texas State vs James Madison | +7.5L20–52 | 55.5 | L20–52 | O | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Texas State at Louisiana | -3.5L39–42 | 62.5 | L39–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Texas State at Southern Miss | +3.0W41–14 | 65.5 | W41–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Texas State vs UL Monroe | -20.5W31–14 | 59.5 | W31–14 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Texas State vs South Alabama | -9.5W49–26 | 62.5 | W49–26 | O | Y |
| Fri 1/2 | Texas State vs Rice | -19.5W41–10 | 55.5 | W41–10 | U | Y |
Marshall 2025 Schedule
Marshall's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Marshall at Georgia | +39.5L7–45 | 55.5 | L7–45 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Marshall vs Missouri State | -7.0L20–21 | 53.5 | L20–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Marshall vs Eastern Kentucky | -14.5W38–7 | 49.5 | W38–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Marshall at Middle Tennessee | -2.5W42–28 | 46.5 | W42–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Marshall at Louisiana | -2.5L51–54 | 47.5 | L51–54 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Marshall vs Old Dominion | +14.5W48–24 | 57.5 | W48–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Marshall vs Texas State | +3.0W40–37 | 65.5 | W40–37 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/30 | Marshall at Coastal Carolina | -7.5L27–44 | 55.5 | L27–44 | O | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Marshall vs James Madison | +13.5L23–35 | 53.5 | L23–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Marshall at Georgia State | -9.5W30–18 | 59.5 | W30–18 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Marshall at App State | -3.5L24–26 | 57.5 | L24–26 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Marshall vs Georgia Southern | -10.5L19–24 | 61.5 | L19–24 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Texas State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Texas State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Texas State Edge
Texas State +8.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Texas State
G. J. Kinne #1
15–10 (60%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Landon Keopple
Yr 1
#1
DC
Dexter McCoil
Yr 2
#1
Marshall
Tony Gibson #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Rod Smith
Yr 1
#1
DC
Shannon Morrison
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓