Sat, Sep 13 2025
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Stanford Stadium
Stanford, CA
·
Turf
·
50,424 cap
Boston College✈ 2,684 mi-3 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Boston College wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Boston College -14.0
O/U 44.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Boston College
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Boston College 2025 Schedule
Boston College's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Boston College vs Fordham | -35.0W66–10 | 53.5 | W66–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Boston College at Michigan State | +3.5L40–42 | 45.5 | L40–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Boston College at Stanford | -14.0L20–30 | 44.5 | L20–30 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | Boston College vs California | -6.0L24–28 | 54.5 | L24–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Boston College at Pittsburgh | +6.5L7–48 | 54.5 | L7–48 | O | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Boston College vs Clemson | +14.0L10–41 | 54.5 | L10–41 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Boston College vs UConn | +2.5L23–38 | 58.5 | L23–38 | O | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Boston College at Louisville | +25.5L24–38 | 54.5 | L24–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Boston College vs Notre Dame | +31.5L10–25 | 55.5 | L10–25 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Boston College vs SMU | +10.5L13–45 | 54.5 | L13–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Boston College vs Georgia Tech | +16.5L34–36 | 61.5 | L34–36 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/29 | Boston College at Syracuse | -2.5W34–12 | 54.5 | W34–12 | U | Y |
Stanford 2025 Schedule
Stanford's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/23 | Stanford at Hawai'i | +1.5L20–23 | 53.5 | L20–23 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Stanford at BYU | +20.5L3–27 | 44.5 | L3–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Stanford vs Boston College | +14.0W30–20 | 44.5 | W30–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Stanford at Virginia | +16.5L20–48 | 48.5 | L20–48 | O | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Stanford vs San José State | -3.0W30–29 | 49.5 | W30–29 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Stanford at SMU | +19.5L10–34 | 55.5 | L10–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Stanford vs Florida State | +17.5W20–13 | 55.5 | W20–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Stanford at Miami | +28.5L7–42 | 45.5 | L7–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Stanford vs Pittsburgh | +13.5L20–35 | 51.5 | L20–35 | O | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Stanford at North Carolina | +8.5L15–20 | 41.5 | L15–20 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/22 | Stanford vs California | +4.5W31–10 | 47.5 | W31–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Stanford vs Notre Dame | +32.5L20–49 | 50.5 | L20–49 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Boston College
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Boston College +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Boston College Edge
Boston College +39.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
2 — 2 sequences
GC Battle
Stanford
40.4 — 29.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Stanford won by 10
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Boston College
Bill O'Brien #1
7–5 (58%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Will Lawing
Yr 2
#1
DC
Tim Lewis
Yr 2
#1
Stanford
Troy Taylor #1
6–18 (25%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Troy Taylor
Yr 3
#1
DC
Bobby April
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓