Sat, Aug 30 2025
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Tallahassee, FL
·
Turf
·
79,560 cap
Alabama✈ 270 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Alabama -13.5
O/U 50.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Alabama
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Alabama 2025 Schedule
Alabama's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Alabama at Florida State | -13.5L17–31 | 50.5 | L17–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Alabama vs UL Monroe | -34.0W73–0 | 50.0 | W73–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Alabama vs Wisconsin | -17.5W38–14 | 45.5 | W38–14 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | Alabama at Georgia | +2.5W24–21 | 53.5 | W24–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Alabama vs Vanderbilt | -13.5W30–14 | 58.5 | W30–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Alabama at Missouri | -3.5W27–24 | 50.5 | W27–24 | O | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Alabama vs Tennessee | -8.5W37–20 | 60.5 | W37–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Alabama at South Carolina | -11.5W29–22 | 47.5 | W29–22 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/8 | Alabama vs LSU | -10.5W20–9 | 49.5 | W20–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Alabama vs Oklahoma | -6.5L21–23 | 45.5 | L21–23 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Alabama vs Eastern Illinois | -50.5W56–0 | 57.5 | W56–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Alabama at Auburn | -6.5W27–20 | 48.5 | W27–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/6 | Alabama vs Georgia | +2.5L7–28 | 47.5 | L7–28 | U | N |
| Fri 12/19 | Alabama at Oklahoma | +1.5W34–24 | 42.0 | W34–24 | O | Y |
| Thu 1/1 | Alabama vs Indiana | +7.5L3–38 | 46.5 | L3–38 | U | N |
Florida State 2025 Schedule
Florida State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Florida State vs Alabama | +13.5W31–17 | 50.5 | W31–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Florida State vs East Texas A&M | -43.5W77–3 | 56.5 | W77–3 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | Florida State vs Kent State | -44.5W66–10 | 56.5 | W66–10 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/26 | Florida State at Virginia | -7.0L38–46 | 59.5 | L38–46 | O | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Florida State vs Miami | +3.5L22–28 | 54.5 | L22–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Florida State vs Pittsburgh | -10.5L31–34 | 56.5 | L31–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Florida State at Stanford | -17.5L13–20 | 55.5 | L13–20 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/1 | Florida State vs Wake Forest | -12.5W42–7 | 50.5 | W42–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Florida State at Clemson | +1.5L10–24 | 56.5 | L10–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Florida State vs Virginia Tech | -13.5W34–14 | 53.5 | W34–14 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/21 | Florida State at NC State | -7.0L11–21 | 58.5 | L11–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Florida State at Florida | -1.5L21–40 | 48.5 | L21–40 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Alabama
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Alabama
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Alabama
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Alabama Edge
Alabama +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Alabama Edge
Alabama +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Florida State
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Florida State
73.1 — 10.1 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Florida State won by 14
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Florida State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Alabama
Kalen DeBoer #1
9–3 (75%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Ryan Grubb
Yr 1
#1
DC
Kane Wommack
Yr 2
#1
Florida State
Mike Norvell #1
33–27 (55%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Gus Malzahn
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tony White
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓