South Carolina at Missouri Week 4 College Football Matchup South Carolina at Missouri Matchup - Week 4
Sat, Sep 20 2025 · Week 4 · 🏟 Faurot Field Columbia, MO · Turf · 71,168 cap
South Carolina✈ 715 mi-1 hr TZ
20 29
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
South Carolina
21
Missouri
27
P&R Line Missouri -6.5
P&R Total O/U 47.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Missouri -10 · O/U 48.5
Matchup Prediction
Missouri has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Missouri entering this game.
Momentum Control
78.1%
Missouri wins
Strong
Game Control
76%
Missouri wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Missouri -10
O/U 48.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Missouri · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Missouri 4th straight Home Game
South Carolina 2025 Schedule
South Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 8/31South Carolina vs Virginia Tech-8.5W24–1148.5W24–11UY
Sat 9/6South Carolina vs South Carolina State-43.0W38–1054.0W38–10UN
Sat 9/13South Carolina vs Vanderbilt-3.0L7–3148.5L7–31UN
Sat 9/20South Carolina at Missouri+10.0L20–2948.5L20–29OY
Sat 9/27South Carolina vs Kentucky-5.5W35–1346.5W35–13OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/11South Carolina at LSU+8.5L10–2044.5L10–20UN
Sat 10/18South Carolina vs Oklahoma+4.5L7–2642.5L7–26UN
Sat 10/25South Carolina vs Alabama+11.5L22–2947.5L22–29OY
Sat 11/1South Carolina at Ole Miss+12.5L14–3055.5L14–30UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15South Carolina at Texas A&M+16.5L30–3149.5L30–31OY
Sat 11/22South Carolina vs Coastal Carolina-24.0W51–750.0W51–7OY
Sat 11/29South Carolina vs Clemson-2.5L14–2845.5L14–28UN
Missouri 2025 Schedule
Missouri's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Missouri vs Central Arkansas-38.5W61–652.5W61–6OY
Sat 9/6Missouri vs Kansas-5.5W42–3151.0W42–31OY
Sat 9/13Missouri vs Louisiana-27.5W52–1047.5W52–10OY
Sat 9/20Missouri vs South Carolina-10.0W29–2048.5W29–20ON
Sat 9/27Missouri vs Massachusetts-44.5W42–657.5W42–6UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/11Missouri vs Alabama+3.5L24–2750.5L24–27OY
Sat 10/18Missouri at Auburn-1.5W23–1743.5W23–17UY
Sat 10/25Missouri at Vanderbilt+3.0L10–1752.5L10–17UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/8Missouri vs Texas A&M+7.0L17–3848.5L17–38ON
Sat 11/15Missouri vs Mississippi State-7.5W49–2750.5W49–27OY
Sat 11/22Missouri at Oklahoma+4.5L6–1742.5L6–17UN
Sat 11/29Missouri at Arkansas-4.5W31–1754.5W31–17UY
Sat 12/27Missouri vs Virginia-4.0L7–1343.5L7–13UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Missouri PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Missouri
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Missouri
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Missouri
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
South Carolina #109
+0.138
Missouri #50
+0.282
Missouri Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
South Carolina #109
+0.274
Missouri #108
+0.431
Missouri Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
South Carolina #61
0.160
Missouri #8
0.198
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Missouri Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
South Carolina #134
+5.977
Missouri #56
+7.002
Missouri Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
South Carolina #118
+0.718
Missouri #42
+0.864
Missouri Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
South Carolina #128
73.4
Missouri #99
71.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Missouri Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Missouri Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
South Carolina
5.3
Missouri
12.2
Offense Rating
South Carolina
18.3
Missouri
20.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
South Carolina
13.0
Missouri
8.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Missouri Edge
Avg sequences created per game
South Carolina #118
0.00
Missouri #105
2.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
South Carolina #67
0.50
Missouri #14
0.00
Missouri +2.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 78.1% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Missouri Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
South Carolina #1
50.8
Missouri #1
73.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
South Carolina #78
30.0
Missouri #45
14.4
Missouri +23.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Missouri with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
South Carolina
Shane Beamer #1
29–21 (58%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Mike Shula Yr 1 #1
DC Clayton White Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Missouri
Eliah Drinkwitz #1
37–24 (61%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Kirby Moore Yr 3 #1
DC Corey Batoon Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself