Matchup Prediction
Missouri
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Missouri entering this game.
Momentum Control
78.1%
Missouri wins
Strong
Game Control
76%
Missouri wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Missouri -27.5
O/U 47.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Missouri
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Louisiana 2025 Schedule
Louisiana's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Louisiana vs Rice | -14.5L12–14 | 49.5 | L12–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Louisiana vs McNeese | -19.0W34–10 | 50.0 | W34–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Louisiana at Missouri | +27.5L10–52 | 47.5 | L10–52 | O | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Louisiana at Eastern Michigan | -2.5L31–34 | 51.5 | L31–34 | O | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Louisiana vs Marshall | +2.5W54–51 | 47.5 | W54–51 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Louisiana at James Madison | +18.5L14–24 | 44.5 | L14–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Louisiana vs Southern Miss | +4.5L10–22 | 54.5 | L10–22 | U | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Louisiana at Troy | +7.0L23–35 | 47.5 | L23–35 | O | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Louisiana at South Alabama | +3.5W31–22 | 52.5 | W31–22 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Louisiana vs Texas State | +3.5W42–39 | 62.5 | W42–39 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/20 | Louisiana at Arkansas State | +2.5W34–30 | 54.5 | W34–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Louisiana vs UL Monroe | -10.5W30–27 | 47.5 | W30–27 | O | N |
| Wed 12/17 | Louisiana vs Delaware | -1.5L13–20 | 60.5 | L13–20 | U | N |
Missouri 2025 Schedule
Missouri's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | Missouri vs Central Arkansas | -38.5W61–6 | 52.5 | W61–6 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Missouri vs Kansas | -5.5W42–31 | 51.0 | W42–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Missouri vs Louisiana | -27.5W52–10 | 47.5 | W52–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Missouri vs South Carolina | -10.0W29–20 | 48.5 | W29–20 | O | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Missouri vs Massachusetts | -44.5W42–6 | 57.5 | W42–6 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Missouri vs Alabama | +3.5L24–27 | 50.5 | L24–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Missouri at Auburn | -1.5W23–17 | 43.5 | W23–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Missouri at Vanderbilt | +3.0L10–17 | 52.5 | L10–17 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/8 | Missouri vs Texas A&M | +7.0L17–38 | 48.5 | L17–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Missouri vs Mississippi State | -7.5W49–27 | 50.5 | W49–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Missouri at Oklahoma | +4.5L6–17 | 42.5 | L6–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Missouri at Arkansas | -4.5W31–17 | 54.5 | W31–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/27 | Missouri vs Virginia | -4.0L7–13 | 43.5 | L7–13 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Missouri
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Missouri
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Missouri
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Missouri Edge
Missouri +2.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 78.1% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Missouri Edge
Missouri +20.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Missouri
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Missouri
93.0 — 2.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Missouri won by 42
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Missouri with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Louisiana
Michael Desormeaux #1
23–17 (58%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Tim Leger
Yr 3
#1
DC
Jim Salgado
Yr 2
#1
Missouri
Eliah Drinkwitz #1
37–24 (61%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Kirby Moore
Yr 3
#1
DC
Corey Batoon
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓