Matchup Prediction
Ole Miss
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Ole Miss entering this game.
Momentum Control
78.1%
Ole Miss wins
Strong
Game Control
67.1%
Ole Miss wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Ole Miss -2.5
O/U 57.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Ole Miss
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
LSU 2025 Schedule
LSU's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | LSU at Clemson | +3.5W17–10 | 57.5 | W17–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | LSU vs Louisiana Tech | -36.5W23–7 | 49.5 | W23–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | LSU vs Florida | -5.5W20–10 | 47.5 | W20–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | LSU vs SE Louisiana | -49.0W56–10 | 60.0 | W56–10 | O | N |
| Sat 9/27 | LSU at Ole Miss | +2.5L19–24 | 57.5 | L19–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | LSU vs South Carolina | -8.5W20–10 | 44.5 | W20–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | LSU at Vanderbilt | +1.5L24–31 | 48.5 | L24–31 | O | N |
| Sat 10/25 | LSU vs Texas A&M | +1.5L25–49 | 50.5 | L25–49 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/8 | LSU at Alabama | +10.5L9–20 | 49.5 | L9–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | LSU vs Arkansas | -4.0W23–22 | 58.5 | W23–22 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | LSU vs Western Kentucky | -24.5W13–10 | 52.0 | W13–10 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | LSU at Oklahoma | +11.5L13–17 | 36.5 | L13–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/27 | LSU vs Houston | +1.5L35–38 | 43.5 | L35–38 | O | N |
Ole Miss 2025 Schedule
Ole Miss's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Ole Miss vs Georgia State | -38.5W63–7 | 62.5 | W63–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Ole Miss at Kentucky | -8.0W30–23 | 51.5 | W30–23 | O | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Ole Miss vs Arkansas | -3.5W41–35 | 60.5 | W41–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Ole Miss vs Tulane | -12.5W45–10 | 61.5 | W45–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Ole Miss vs LSU | -2.5W24–19 | 57.5 | W24–19 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Ole Miss vs Washington State | -33.5W24–21 | 58.5 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Ole Miss at Georgia | +7.5L35–43 | 56.5 | L35–43 | O | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Ole Miss at Oklahoma | +5.5W34–26 | 52.5 | W34–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Ole Miss vs South Carolina | -12.5W30–14 | 55.5 | W30–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Ole Miss vs The Citadel | -51.5W49–0 | 63.5 | W49–0 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Ole Miss vs Florida | -10.5W34–24 | 53.5 | W34–24 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 11/28 | Ole Miss at Mississippi State | -7.5W38–19 | 62.5 | W38–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/20 | Ole Miss vs Tulane | -17.5W41–10 | 57.5 | W41–10 | U | Y |
| Thu 1/1 | Ole Miss vs Georgia | +6.0W39–34 | 53.5 | W39–34 | O | Y |
| Thu 1/8 | Ole Miss vs Miami | +3.0L27–31 | 52.5 | L27–31 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ole Miss
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Ole Miss Edge
Ole Miss +2.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 78.1% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Ole Miss Edge
Ole Miss +12.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Ole Miss
55.3 — 23.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Ole Miss won by 5
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Ole Miss with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
LSU
Brian Kelly #1
28–11 (72%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Joe Sloan
Yr 2
#1
DC
Blake Baker
Yr 2
#1
Ole Miss
Lane Kiffin #1
43–18 (71%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Charlie Weis Jr.
Yr 2
#1
DC
Pete Golding
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓