South Florida at Memphis Week 10 College Football Matchup South Florida at Memphis Matchup - Week 10
Sat, Nov 4 2023 · Week 10 · 🏟 Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium Memphis, TN · Turf · 62,380 cap
South Florida✈ 660 mi-1 hr TZ
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
South Florida
28
MEM -13.5
Memphis
42
P&R Line Memphis -14
P&R Total O/U 69
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Memphis -13.5 · O/U 68.5
Matchup Prediction
Memphis has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Memphis entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Memphis wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Memphis wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Memphis -13.5
O/U 68.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Memphis · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 South Florida Coming off BYE
South Florida 2023 Schedule
South Florida's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2South Florida at Western Kentucky+13.5L24–4171.5L24–41UN
Sat 9/9South Florida vs Florida A&M-20.0W38–2463.0W38–24UN
Sat 9/16South Florida vs Alabama+34.0L3–1761.0L3–17UY
Sat 9/23South Florida vs Rice+2.5W42–2956.5W42–29OY
Sat 9/30South Florida at Navy+4.0W44–3054.0W44–30OY
Sat 10/7South Florida at UAB-3.5L35–5668.5L35–56ON
Sat 10/14South Florida vs Florida Atlantic-3.0L14–5661.0L14–56ON
Sat 10/21South Florida at UConn+1.0W24–2157.0W24–21UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/4South Florida at Memphis+13.5L50–5968.5L50–59OY
Sat 11/11South Florida vs Temple-7.5W27–2370.5W27–23UN
Fri 11/17South Florida at UTSA+14.5L21–4965.5L21–49ON
Sat 11/25South Florida vs Charlotte-7.5W48–1456.5W48–14OY
Thu 12/21South Florida vs Syracuse+3.0W45–056.0W45–0UY
Memphis 2023 Schedule
Memphis's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Memphis vs Bethune-Cookman-49.0W56–1459.5W56–14ON
Sat 9/9Memphis at Arkansas State-21.0W37–357.0W37–3UY
Thu 9/14Memphis vs Navy-12.5W28–2447.0W28–24ON
Sat 9/23Memphis vs Missouri+6.5L27–3452.0L27–34ON
Sat 9/30Memphis vs Boise State-3.0W35–3258.0W35–32ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/13Memphis vs Tulane+4.5L21–3154.5L21–31UN
Sat 10/21Memphis at UAB-7.5W45–2161.5W45–21OY
Sat 10/28Memphis at North Texas-6.5W45–4270.0W45–42ON
Sat 11/4Memphis vs South Florida-13.5W59–5068.5W59–50ON
Sat 11/11Memphis at Charlotte-9.5W44–3851.5W44–38ON
Sat 11/18Memphis vs SMU+9.5L34–3864.5L34–38OY
Fri 11/24Memphis at Temple-13.5W45–2163.5W45–21OY
Fri 12/29Memphis at Iowa State+10.5W36–2658.0W36–26OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Memphis PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Memphis
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
South Florida #79
+0.373
Memphis #18
+0.525
Memphis Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
South Florida #73
+0.543
Memphis #22
+0.788
Memphis Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
South Florida #15
0.189
Memphis #66
0.162
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
South Florida Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
South Florida #89
+7.750
Memphis #16
+8.299
Memphis Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
South Florida #106
+0.828
Memphis #23
+0.864
Memphis Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
South Florida #52
70.1
Memphis #18
68.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Memphis Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Memphis Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
South Florida
1.9
Memphis
3.1
Offense Rating
South Florida
18.7
Memphis
16.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
South Florida
16.8
Memphis
13.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Memphis Edge
Avg sequences created per game
South Florida #96
0.86
Memphis #11
1.43
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
South Florida #16
1.00
Memphis #37
1.00
Memphis +0.57
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Memphis Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
South Florida #1
34.4
Memphis #1
52.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
South Florida #80
45.0
Memphis #51
29.8
Memphis +17.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Memphis
73.7 — 10.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Memphis won by 9
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Memphis with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
South Florida
Alex Golesh #1
1–2 (33%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Joel Gordon Yr 1 #1
DC Todd Orlando Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Memphis
Ryan Silverfield #1
24–16 (60%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Tim Cramsey Yr 2 #1
DC Matt Barnes Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself