Sun, Nov 26 2023
·
Week 13
·
🏟 McLane Stadium
Waco, TX
·
Turf
·
45,140 cap
West Virginia✈ 1,111 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
West Virginia
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
West Virginia entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
West Virginia wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
West Virginia wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
West Virginia -6.5
O/U 53.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → West Virginia
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
West Virginia 2023 Schedule
West Virginia's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | West Virginia at Penn State | +21.0L15–38 | 48.0 | L15–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | West Virginia vs Duquesne | -38.5W56–17 | 55.5 | W56–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | West Virginia vs Pittsburgh | -2.5W17–6 | 48.0 | W17–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | West Virginia vs Texas Tech | +6.0W20–13 | 53.5 | W20–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | West Virginia at TCU | +14.0W24–21 | 52.0 | W24–21 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/12 | West Virginia at Houston | -3.0L39–41 | 49.5 | L39–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/21 | West Virginia vs Oklahoma State | -3.0L34–48 | 48.0 | L34–48 | O | N |
| Sat 10/28 | West Virginia at UCF | +6.5W41–28 | 59.5 | W41–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | West Virginia vs BYU | -13.0W37–7 | 48.5 | W37–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | West Virginia at Oklahoma | +13.5L20–59 | 59.5 | L20–59 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | West Virginia vs Cincinnati | -4.5W42–21 | 52.5 | W42–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | West Virginia at Baylor | -6.5W34–31 | 53.5 | W34–31 | O | N |
| Wed 12/27 | West Virginia vs North Carolina | -4.5W30–10 | 62.0 | W30–10 | U | Y |
Baylor 2023 Schedule
Baylor's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Baylor vs Texas State | -26.5L31–42 | 58.5 | L31–42 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Baylor vs Utah | +7.0L13–20 | 46.5 | L13–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Baylor vs Long Island University | -44.0W30–7 | 54.0 | W30–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Baylor vs Texas | +17.5L6–38 | 49.5 | L6–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Baylor at UCF | +8.0W36–35 | 56.5 | W36–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Baylor vs Texas Tech | +2.5L14–39 | 59.5 | L14–39 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/21 | Baylor at Cincinnati | +2.5W32–29 | 51.5 | W32–29 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Baylor vs Iowa State | +3.0L18–30 | 47.0 | L18–30 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Baylor vs Houston | -3.0L24–25 | 58.5 | L24–25 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Baylor at Kansas State | +20.5L25–59 | 55.5 | L25–59 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Baylor at TCU | +13.0L17–42 | 62.0 | L17–42 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Baylor vs West Virginia | +6.5L31–34 | 53.5 | L31–34 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ West Virginia
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ West Virginia
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ West Virginia
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
West Virginia Edge
West Virginia +0.40
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
West Virginia Edge
West Virginia +24.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
2 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
West Virginia
33.5 — 42.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
West Virginia won by 3
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on West Virginia with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
West Virginia
Neal Brown #1
24–26 (48%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Chad Scott
Yr 1
#1
DC
ShaDon Brown
Yr 3
#1
Baylor
Dave Aranda #1
21–18 (54%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Jeff Grimes
Yr 3
#1
DC
Matt Powledge
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓