Tue, Oct 31 2023
·
Week 10
·
🏟 Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Mount Pleasant, MI
·
Turf
·
32,885 cap
Northern Illinois✈ 232 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Northern Illinois
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Northern Illinois entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Northern Illinois wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Northern Illinois wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Northern Illinois -3
O/U 48.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Northern Illinois
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Northern Illinois 2023 Schedule
Northern Illinois's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Northern Illinois at Boston College | +8.0W27–24 | 50.0 | W27–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Northern Illinois vs Southern Illinois | -6.5L11–14 | 58.5 | L11–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Northern Illinois at Nebraska | +11.5L11–35 | 42.5 | L11–35 | O | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Northern Illinois vs Tulsa | -3.5L14–22 | 54.5 | L14–22 | U | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Northern Illinois at Toledo | +13.0L33–35 | 48.0 | L33–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Northern Illinois at Akron | -4.0W55–14 | 42.5 | W55–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Northern Illinois vs Ohio | +5.5W23–13 | 45.0 | W23–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Northern Illinois vs Eastern Michigan | -11.5W20–13 | 43.5 | W20–13 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/31 | Northern Illinois at Central Michigan | -3.0L31–37 | 48.0 | L31–37 | O | N |
| Tue 11/7 | Northern Illinois vs Ball State | -9.5L17–20 | 43.5 | L17–20 | U | N |
| Tue 11/14 | Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan | -4.5W24–0 | 55.5 | W24–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Northern Illinois at Kent State | -20.5W37–27 | 44.5 | W37–27 | O | N |
| Sat 12/23 | Northern Illinois vs Arkansas State | +2.5W21–19 | 54.0 | W21–19 | U | Y |
Central Michigan 2023 Schedule
Central Michigan's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/1 | Central Michigan at Michigan State | +14.0L7–31 | 45.0 | L7–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Central Michigan vs New Hampshire | -7.0W45–42 | 48.5 | W45–42 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Central Michigan at Notre Dame | +34.5L17–41 | 51.5 | L17–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Central Michigan at South Alabama | +16.5W34–30 | 46.5 | W34–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan | -9.5W26–23 | 45.0 | W26–23 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Central Michigan at Buffalo | -2.5L13–37 | 51.5 | L13–37 | U | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Central Michigan vs Akron | -10.5W17–10 | 44.0 | W17–10 | U | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Central Michigan at Ball State | -5.0L17–24 | 42.0 | L17–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/31 | Central Michigan vs Northern Illinois | +3.0W37–31 | 48.0 | W37–31 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/7 | Central Michigan at Western Michigan | +3.5L28–38 | 57.5 | L28–38 | O | N |
| Wed 11/15 | Central Michigan at Ohio | +11.5L20–34 | 48.5 | L20–34 | O | N |
| Fri 11/24 | Central Michigan vs Toledo | +12.5L17–32 | 54.5 | L17–32 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Northern Illinois
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Northern Illinois Edge
Northern Illinois +0.57
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Northern Illinois Edge
Northern Illinois +3.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Central Michigan
3 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Central Michigan
81.8 — 8.9 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Central Michigan won by 6
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Northern Illinois, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Northern Illinois
Thomas Hammock #1
18–29 (38%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Eric Eidsness
Yr 3
#1
DC
Nick Benedetto
Yr 2
#1
Central Michigan
Jim McElwain #1
25–23 (52%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Paul Petrino
Yr 2
#1
DC
Robb Akey
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓