Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2023 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2022 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Idaho wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Idaho -5.5
O/U 51.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Idaho 2023 Schedule
Idaho's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/9 | Idaho at Nevada | -5.5W33–6 | 51.0 | W33–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Idaho at California | +14.5L17–31 | 52.5 | L17–31 | U | Y |
Nevada 2023 Schedule
Nevada's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Nevada at USC | +37.5L14–66 | 63.5 | L14–66 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Nevada vs Idaho | +5.5L6–33 | 51.0 | L6–33 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Nevada vs Kansas | +28.5L24–31 | 58.0 | L24–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Nevada at Texas State | +17.0L24–35 | 60.0 | L24–35 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Nevada at Fresno State | +25.5L9–27 | 50.5 | L9–27 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | Nevada vs UNLV | +7.5L27–45 | 51.5 | L27–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Nevada at San Diego State | +11.0W6–0 | 48.5 | W6–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Nevada vs New Mexico | +1.0W34–24 | 50.0 | W34–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Nevada vs Hawai'i | -3.5L14–27 | 50.5 | L14–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Nevada at Utah State | +14.5L24–41 | 54.5 | L24–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Nevada at Colorado State | +12.5L20–30 | 45.5 | L20–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Nevada vs Wyoming | +11.0L6–42 | 42.0 | L6–42 | O | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Idaho Edge
Idaho +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Idaho Edge
Idaho +2.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓