Virginia Tech at Tulane Week 1 College Football Matchup Virginia Tech at Tulane Matchup - Week 1
Wed, Dec 27 2023 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium Annapolis, MD · Turf · 34,000 cap
Virginia Tech✈ 245 miSame TZ Tulane✈ 993 mi+1 hr TZ
Away (Neutral)
41 20
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Virginia Tech
23
Tulane
24
P&R Line Virginia Tech -0
P&R Total O/U 47
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Virginia Tech -13.5 · O/U 43.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Virginia Tech, while Game Control favors Tulane. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Virginia Tech wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Tulane wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Virginia Tech -13.5
O/U 43.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Virginia Tech · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Tulane 3rd straight Home Game 🚌 Virginia Tech 2nd straight Road Game
Virginia Tech 2023 Schedule
Virginia Tech's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Virginia Tech vs Old Dominion-16.0W36–1748.0W36–17OY
Sat 9/9Virginia Tech vs Purdue-1.5L17–2449.0L17–24UN
Sat 9/16Virginia Tech at Rutgers+6.5L16–3537.5L16–35ON
Sat 9/23Virginia Tech at Marshall+5.5L17–2441.5L17–24UN
Sat 9/30Virginia Tech vs Pittsburgh+3.0W38–2140.0W38–21OY
Sat 10/7Virginia Tech at Florida State+23.5L17–3952.5L17–39OY
Sat 10/14Virginia Tech vs Wake Forest-1.5W30–1348.5W30–13UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/26Virginia Tech vs Syracuse-2.5W38–1047.5W38–10OY
Sat 11/4Virginia Tech at Louisville+9.5L3–3448.5L3–34UN
Sat 11/11Virginia Tech at Boston College-2.5W48–2248.5W48–22OY
Sat 11/18Virginia Tech vs NC State-2.5L28–3540.5L28–35ON
Sat 11/25Virginia Tech at Virginia-2.5W55–1752.5W55–17OY
Wed 12/27Virginia Tech vs Tulane-13.5W41–2043.5W41–20OY
Tulane 2023 Schedule
Tulane's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Tulane vs South Alabama-6.0W37–1751.0W37–17OY
Sat 9/9Tulane vs Ole Miss+8.0L20–3764.0L20–37UN
Sat 9/16Tulane at Southern Miss-8.0W21–347.5W21–3UY
Sat 9/23Tulane vs Nicholls-38.0W36–755.5W36–7UN
Sat 9/30Tulane vs UAB-22.5W35–2359.5W35–23UN
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/13Tulane at Memphis-4.5W31–2154.5W31–21UY
Sat 10/21Tulane vs North Texas-20.0W35–2863.5W35–28UN
Sat 10/28Tulane at Rice-10.0W30–2855.0W30–28ON
Sat 11/4Tulane at East Carolina-17.0W13–1046.0W13–10UN
Sat 11/11Tulane vs Tulsa-24.5W24–2252.5W24–22UN
Sat 11/18Tulane at Florida Atlantic-9.5W24–846.5W24–8UY
Fri 11/24Tulane vs UTSA-2.5W29–1651.5W29–16UY
Sat 12/2Tulane vs SMU-4.0L14–2650.5L14–26UN
Wed 12/27Tulane vs Virginia Tech+13.5L20–4143.5L20–41ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Virginia Tech PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Virginia Tech
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Virginia Tech #59
+0.370
Tulane #70
+0.344
Virginia Tech Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Virginia Tech #70
+0.530
Tulane #40
+0.547
Tulane Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Virginia Tech #47
0.171
Tulane #29
0.181
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Tulane Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Virginia Tech #30
+8.022
Tulane #91
+8.109
Tulane Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Virginia Tech #55
+0.842
Tulane #61
+0.799
Virginia Tech Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Virginia Tech #33
69.3
Tulane #6
66.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Tulane Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Virginia Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Virginia Tech
5.9
Tulane
0.9
Offense Rating
Virginia Tech
18.3
Tulane
14.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Virginia Tech
12.4
Tulane
13.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Virginia Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Virginia Tech #13
1.50
Tulane #32
1.17
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Virginia Tech #68
0.83
Tulane #45
1.00
Virginia Tech +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Tulane Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Virginia Tech #1
44.2
Tulane #1
64.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Virginia Tech #77
42.8
Tulane #15
19.4
Tulane +20.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 13 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Virginia Tech
Brent Pry #1
4–10 (29%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Tyler Bowen Yr 2 #1
DC Chris Marve Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Tulane
Willie Fritz #1
45–46 (50%) · Yr 8 at school
OC Slade Nagle Yr 1 #1
DC Shiel Wood Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself