Sun, Nov 26 2023
·
Week 13
·
🏟 Raymond James Stadium
Tampa, FL
·
Turf
·
65,857 cap
Charlotte✈ 517 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
South Florida
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
South Florida entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
South Florida wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
South Florida wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
South Florida -7.5
O/U 56.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → South Florida
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Charlotte 2023 Schedule
Charlotte's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Charlotte vs South Carolina State | -24.0W24–3 | 44.5 | W24–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Charlotte at Maryland | +24.5L20–38 | 50.0 | L20–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Charlotte vs Georgia State | +6.5L25–41 | 52.0 | L25–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Charlotte at Florida | +28.0L7–22 | 48.5 | L7–22 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Charlotte at SMU | +22.5L16–34 | 53.0 | L16–34 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | Charlotte vs Navy | +3.5L0–14 | 44.0 | L0–14 | U | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Charlotte at East Carolina | +6.0W10–7 | 39.5 | W10–7 | U | Y |
| Fri 10/27 | Charlotte vs Florida Atlantic | +3.5L16–38 | 45.5 | L16–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Charlotte at Tulsa | +4.5W33–26 | 47.5 | W33–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Charlotte vs Memphis | +9.5L38–44 | 51.5 | L38–44 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Charlotte vs Rice | -0.5L7–28 | 46.5 | L7–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Charlotte at South Florida | +7.5L14–48 | 56.5 | L14–48 | O | N |
South Florida 2023 Schedule
South Florida's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | South Florida at Western Kentucky | +13.5L24–41 | 71.5 | L24–41 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | South Florida vs Florida A&M | -20.0W38–24 | 63.0 | W38–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | South Florida vs Alabama | +34.0L3–17 | 61.0 | L3–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | South Florida vs Rice | +2.5W42–29 | 56.5 | W42–29 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | South Florida at Navy | +4.0W44–30 | 54.0 | W44–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | South Florida at UAB | -3.5L35–56 | 68.5 | L35–56 | O | N |
| Sat 10/14 | South Florida vs Florida Atlantic | -3.0L14–56 | 61.0 | L14–56 | O | N |
| Sat 10/21 | South Florida at UConn | +1.0W24–21 | 57.0 | W24–21 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/4 | South Florida at Memphis | +13.5L50–59 | 68.5 | L50–59 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | South Florida vs Temple | -7.5W27–23 | 70.5 | W27–23 | U | N |
| Fri 11/17 | South Florida at UTSA | +14.5L21–49 | 65.5 | L21–49 | O | N |
| Sat 11/25 | South Florida vs Charlotte | -7.5W48–14 | 56.5 | W48–14 | O | Y |
| Thu 12/21 | South Florida vs Syracuse | +3.0W45–0 | 56.0 | W45–0 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ South Florida
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ South Florida
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ South Florida
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
South Florida Edge
South Florida +0.20
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
South Florida Edge
South Florida +8.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
South Florida
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
South Florida
55.7 — 21.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
South Florida won by 34
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on South Florida. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Charlotte
Biff Poggi #1
1–2 (33%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Mike Miller
Yr 1
#1
DC
Ryan Osborn
Yr 1
#1
South Florida
Alex Golesh #1
1–2 (33%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Joel Gordon
Yr 1
#1
DC
Todd Orlando
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓