SMU at East Carolina Week 7 College Football Matchup SMU at East Carolina Matchup - Week 7
Thu, Oct 12 2023 · Week 7 · 🏟 Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium Greenville, NC · Turf · 50,000 cap
SMU✈ 1,123 mi+1 hr TZ
Away
31 10
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
SMU
34
East Carolina
14
P&R Line SMU -20
P&R Total O/U 47.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas SMU -11.5 · O/U 48.5
Matchup Prediction
SMU has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor SMU entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
SMU wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
SMU wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
SMU -11.5
O/U 48.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → SMU · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 East Carolina Coming off BYE 🛋 SMU Coming off BYE
SMU 2023 Schedule
SMU's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2SMU vs Louisiana Tech-21.0W38–1466.0W38–14UY
Sat 9/9SMU at Oklahoma+16.5L11–2868.5L11–28UN
Sat 9/16SMU vs Prairie View A&M-42.5W69–063.5W69–0OY
Sat 9/23SMU at TCU+7.0L17–3463.5L17–34UN
Sat 9/30SMU vs Charlotte-22.5W34–1653.0W34–16UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/12SMU at East Carolina-11.5W31–1048.5W31–10UY
Fri 10/20SMU at Temple-24.0W55–053.0W55–0OY
Sat 10/28SMU vs Tulsa-20.5W69–1055.0W69–10OY
Sat 11/4SMU at Rice-12.0W36–3159.5W36–31ON
Fri 11/10SMU vs North Texas-21.5W45–2167.5W45–21UY
Sat 11/18SMU at Memphis-9.5W38–3464.5W38–34ON
Sat 11/25SMU vs Navy-20.0W59–1446.0W59–14OY
Sat 12/2SMU at Tulane+4.0W26–1450.5W26–14UY
Thu 12/28SMU vs Boston College-13.5L14–2349.0L14–23UN
East Carolina 2023 Schedule
East Carolina's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2East Carolina at Michigan+36.0L3–3053.5L3–30UY
Sat 9/9East Carolina vs Marshall+3.0L13–3143.5L13–31ON
Sat 9/16East Carolina at App State+7.5L28–4348.5L28–43ON
Sat 9/23East Carolina vs Gardner-Webb-13.0W44–051.0W44–0UY
Sat 9/30East Carolina at Rice+3.5L17–2447.0L17–24UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/12East Carolina vs SMU+11.5L10–3148.5L10–31UN
Sat 10/21East Carolina vs Charlotte-6.0L7–1039.5L7–10UN
Sat 10/28East Carolina at UTSA+17.5L27–4148.0L27–41OY
Sat 11/4East Carolina vs Tulane+17.0L10–1346.0L10–13UY
Sat 11/11East Carolina at Florida Atlantic+7.5W22–744.5W22–7UY
Sat 11/18East Carolina at Navy+2.5L0–1030.5L0–10UN
Sat 11/25East Carolina vs Tulsa-4.5L27–2944.5L27–29ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
SMU PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ SMU
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
SMU #24
+0.428
East Carolina #132
+0.059
SMU Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
SMU #16
+0.774
East Carolina #129
+0.142
SMU Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
SMU #14
0.194
East Carolina #11
0.198
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
East Carolina Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
SMU #21
+7.354
East Carolina #129
+6.215
SMU Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
SMU #46
+0.783
East Carolina #132
+0.689
SMU Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
SMU #40
69.6
East Carolina #36
69.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
East Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
SMU Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
SMU
16.2
East Carolina
1.4
Offense Rating
SMU
26.0
East Carolina
15.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
SMU
9.9
East Carolina
14.4
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? SMU Edge
Avg sequences created per game
SMU #35
0.75
East Carolina #116
0.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
SMU #31
1.25
East Carolina #97
2.00
SMU +0.25
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? SMU Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
SMU #1
57.6
East Carolina #1
32.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
SMU #9
32.0
East Carolina #108
48.1
SMU +25.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on SMU with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
SMU
Rhett Lashlee #1
9–7 (56%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Casey Woods Yr 2 #1
DC Scott Symons Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
East Carolina
Mike Houston #1
22–27 (45%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Donnie Kirkpatrick Yr 3 #1
DC Blake Harrell Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself