Sat, Sep 23 2023
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Greenville, NC
·
Turf
·
50,000 cap
Gardner-Webb✈ 243 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2023 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2022 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
East Carolina
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
East Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
East Carolina wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
East Carolina wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
East Carolina -13
O/U 51.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Gardner-Webb 2023 Schedule
Gardner-Webb's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Gardner-Webb at App State | +22.5L24–45 | 51.0 | L24–45 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/23 | Gardner-Webb at East Carolina | +13.0L0–44 | 51.0 | L0–44 | U | N |
East Carolina 2023 Schedule
East Carolina's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | East Carolina at Michigan | +36.0L3–30 | 53.5 | L3–30 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | East Carolina vs Marshall | +3.0L13–31 | 43.5 | L13–31 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | East Carolina at App State | +7.5L28–43 | 48.5 | L28–43 | O | N |
| Sat 9/23 | East Carolina vs Gardner-Webb | -13.0W44–0 | 51.0 | W44–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | East Carolina at Rice | +3.5L17–24 | 47.0 | L17–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/12 | East Carolina vs SMU | +11.5L10–31 | 48.5 | L10–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/21 | East Carolina vs Charlotte | -6.0L7–10 | 39.5 | L7–10 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | East Carolina at UTSA | +17.5L27–41 | 48.0 | L27–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | East Carolina vs Tulane | +17.0L10–13 | 46.0 | L10–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | East Carolina at Florida Atlantic | +7.5W22–7 | 44.5 | W22–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | East Carolina at Navy | +2.5L0–10 | 30.5 | L0–10 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | East Carolina vs Tulsa | -4.5L27–29 | 44.5 | L27–29 | O | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
East Carolina Edge
East Carolina +0.15
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
East Carolina Edge
East Carolina +38.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓