Sat, Sep 10 2022
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Week 2
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🏟 Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Oxford, MS
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Turf
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64,038 cap
Central Arkansas✈ 173 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Ole Miss -36.5
O/U 61.0
consensus
Central Arkansas 2022 Schedule
Central Arkansas's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/10 | Central Arkansas at Ole Miss | +36.5L3–59 | 61.0 | L3–59 | O | N |
Ole Miss 2022 Schedule
Ole Miss's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Ole Miss vs Troy | -21.5W28–10 | 56.5 | W28–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Ole Miss vs Central Arkansas | -36.5W59–3 | 61.0 | W59–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Ole Miss at Georgia Tech | -17.0W42–0 | 63.0 | W42–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Ole Miss vs Tulsa | -21.0W35–27 | 66.5 | W35–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Ole Miss vs Kentucky | -6.5W22–19 | 55.0 | W22–19 | U | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Ole Miss at Vanderbilt | -17.0W52–28 | 59.5 | W52–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Ole Miss vs Auburn | -15.5W48–34 | 55.5 | W48–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Ole Miss at LSU | +0.0L20–45 | 64.0 | L20–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Ole Miss at Texas A&M | -3.0W31–28 | 55.5 | W31–28 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/12 | Ole Miss vs Alabama | +11.0L24–30 | 65.5 | L24–30 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Ole Miss at Arkansas | +0.0L27–42 | 67.5 | L27–42 | O | N |
| Thu 11/24 | Ole Miss vs Mississippi State | -2.5L22–24 | 63.0 | L22–24 | U | N |
| Wed 12/28 | Ole Miss vs Texas Tech | -4.5L25–42 | 73.0 | L25–42 | U | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Central Arkansas Edge
Central Arkansas +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Central Arkansas Edge
Central Arkansas +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Ole Miss
3 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Ole Miss
94.5 — 2.2 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Ole Miss won by 56
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Ole Miss, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓