Matchup Prediction
Ole Miss
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Ole Miss entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Ole Miss wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Ole Miss wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Ole Miss -0.0
O/U 67.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Ole Miss
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Ole Miss 2022 Schedule
Ole Miss's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Ole Miss vs Troy | -21.5W28–10 | 56.5 | W28–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Ole Miss vs Central Arkansas | -36.5W59–3 | 61.0 | W59–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Ole Miss at Georgia Tech | -17.0W42–0 | 63.0 | W42–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Ole Miss vs Tulsa | -21.0W35–27 | 66.5 | W35–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Ole Miss vs Kentucky | -6.5W22–19 | 55.0 | W22–19 | U | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Ole Miss at Vanderbilt | -17.0W52–28 | 59.5 | W52–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Ole Miss vs Auburn | -15.5W48–34 | 55.5 | W48–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Ole Miss at LSU | +0.0L20–45 | 64.0 | L20–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Ole Miss at Texas A&M | -3.0W31–28 | 55.5 | W31–28 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/12 | Ole Miss vs Alabama | +11.0L24–30 | 65.5 | L24–30 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Ole Miss at Arkansas | +0.0L27–42 | 67.5 | L27–42 | O | N |
| Thu 11/24 | Ole Miss vs Mississippi State | -2.5L22–24 | 63.0 | L22–24 | U | N |
| Wed 12/28 | Ole Miss vs Texas Tech | -4.5L25–42 | 73.0 | L25–42 | U | N |
Arkansas 2022 Schedule
Arkansas's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Arkansas vs Cincinnati | -6.5W31–24 | 54.5 | W31–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Arkansas vs South Carolina | -9.0W44–30 | 56.0 | W44–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Arkansas vs Missouri State | -26.0W38–27 | 60.0 | W38–27 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Arkansas vs Texas A&M | +1.5L21–23 | 51.0 | L21–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Arkansas vs Alabama | +17.0L26–49 | 61.0 | L26–49 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Arkansas at Mississippi State | +8.0L17–40 | 55.5 | L17–40 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Arkansas at BYU | +1.0W52–35 | 66.5 | W52–35 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | Arkansas at Auburn | -4.0W41–27 | 60.0 | W41–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Arkansas vs Liberty | -14.5L19–21 | 61.5 | L19–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Arkansas vs LSU | +5.0L10–13 | 59.0 | L10–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Arkansas vs Ole Miss | +0.0W42–27 | 67.5 | W42–27 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/25 | Arkansas at Missouri | -3.0L27–29 | 55.5 | L27–29 | O | N |
| Wed 12/28 | Arkansas vs Kansas | -1.5W55–53 | 70.5 | W55–53 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ole Miss
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Ole Miss Edge
Ole Miss +0.57
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Ole Miss Edge
Ole Miss +31.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Arkansas
3 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Arkansas
80.9 — 7.9 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Arkansas won by 15
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Ole Miss with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Ole Miss
Lane Kiffin #1
15–8 (65%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Charlie Weis Jr.
Yr 1
#1
DC
Maurice Crum Jr.
Yr 1
#1
Arkansas
Sam Pittman #1
12–11 (52%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Kendal Briles
Yr 2
#1
DC
Barry Odom
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓