Mon, Jan 2 2023
·
Postseason
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 Raymond James Stadium
Tampa, FL
·
Turf
·
65,857 cap
Mississippi State✈ 531 mi+1 hr TZ
Illinois✈ 899 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Mississippi State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Mississippi State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Mississippi State wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Mississippi State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Mississippi State -3.5
O/U 46.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Illinois
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Mississippi State 2022 Schedule
Mississippi State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Mississippi State vs Memphis | -17.0W49–23 | 58.0 | W49–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Mississippi State at Arizona | -11.5W39–17 | 57.5 | W39–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Mississippi State at LSU | -3.0L16–31 | 53.0 | L16–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Mississippi State vs Bowling Green | -31.0W45–14 | 53.0 | W45–14 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Mississippi State vs Texas A&M | -4.0W42–24 | 45.0 | W42–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Mississippi State vs Arkansas | -8.0W40–17 | 55.5 | W40–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Mississippi State at Kentucky | -3.5L17–27 | 50.5 | L17–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Mississippi State at Alabama | +21.5L6–30 | 61.5 | L6–30 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/5 | Mississippi State vs Auburn | -12.5W39–33 | 50.5 | W39–33 | O | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Mississippi State vs Georgia | +16.5L19–45 | 53.0 | L19–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Mississippi State vs East Tennessee State | -39.0W56–7 | 62.5 | W56–7 | O | Y |
| Thu 11/24 | Mississippi State at Ole Miss | +2.5W24–22 | 63.0 | W24–22 | U | Y |
| Mon 1/2 | Mississippi State vs Illinois | -3.5W19–10 | 46.5 | W19–10 | U | Y |
Illinois 2022 Schedule
Illinois's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/27 | Illinois vs Wyoming | -14.0W38–6 | 42.5 | W38–6 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/2 | Illinois at Indiana | +1.0L20–23 | 47.5 | L20–23 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Illinois vs Virginia | -4.0W24–3 | 55.0 | W24–3 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 9/22 | Illinois vs Chattanooga | -20.0W31–0 | 44.5 | W31–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Illinois at Wisconsin | +6.5W34–10 | 43.0 | W34–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Illinois vs Iowa | -3.5W9–6 | 36.5 | W9–6 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Illinois vs Minnesota | +4.5W26–14 | 40.0 | W26–14 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | Illinois at Nebraska | -7.5W26–9 | 50.5 | W26–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Illinois vs Michigan State | -16.5L15–23 | 41.0 | L15–23 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Illinois vs Purdue | -6.0L24–31 | 44.0 | L24–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Illinois at Michigan | +17.0L17–19 | 41.5 | L17–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Illinois at Northwestern | -15.0W41–3 | 38.0 | W41–3 | O | Y |
| Mon 1/2 | Illinois vs Mississippi State | +3.5L10–19 | 46.5 | L10–19 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Illinois
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Illinois
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Illinois
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Mississippi State Edge
Mississippi State +0.36
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Mississippi State Edge
Mississippi State +0.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Mississippi State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Mississippi State
Mike Leach #1
11–13 (46%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Mike Leach
Yr 2
#1
DC
Zach Arnett
Yr 2
#1
Illinois
Bret Bielema #1
5–7 (42%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Barry Lunney Jr.
Yr 1
#1
DC
Ryan Walters
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓