Illinois at Northwestern Week 13 College Football Matchup Illinois at Northwestern Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 26 2022 · Week 13 · 🏟 Ryan Field Evanston, IL · Turf · 47,130 cap
Illinois✈ 138 miSame TZ
Away
41 3
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Illinois
33
ILL -15
Northwestern
6
P&R Line Illinois -27
P&R Total O/U 39.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Illinois -15.0 · O/U 38.0
Matchup Prediction
Illinois has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Illinois entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Illinois wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Illinois wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Illinois -15.0
O/U 38.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Illinois · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Illinois 2nd straight Road Game
Illinois 2022 Schedule
Illinois's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/27Illinois vs Wyoming-14.0W38–642.5W38–6OY
Fri 9/2Illinois at Indiana+1.0L20–2347.5L20–23UN
Sat 9/10Illinois vs Virginia-4.0W24–355.0W24–3UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 9/22Illinois vs Chattanooga-20.0W31–044.5W31–0UY
Sat 10/1Illinois at Wisconsin+6.5W34–1043.0W34–10OY
Sat 10/8Illinois vs Iowa-3.5W9–636.5W9–6UN
Sat 10/15Illinois vs Minnesota+4.5W26–1440.0W26–14UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/29Illinois at Nebraska-7.5W26–950.5W26–9UY
Sat 11/5Illinois vs Michigan State-16.5L15–2341.0L15–23UN
Sat 11/12Illinois vs Purdue-6.0L24–3144.0L24–31ON
Sat 11/19Illinois at Michigan+17.0L17–1941.5L17–19UY
Sat 11/26Illinois at Northwestern-15.0W41–338.0W41–3OY
Mon 1/2Illinois vs Mississippi State+3.5L10–1946.5L10–19UN
Northwestern 2022 Schedule
Northwestern's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/27Northwestern vs Nebraska+12.0W31–2852.5W31–28OY
Sat 9/10Northwestern vs Duke-10.0L23–3156.5L23–31UN
Sat 9/17Northwestern vs Southern Illinois-13.5L24–3158.5L24–31UN
Sat 9/24Northwestern vs Miami (OH)-7.5L14–1750.0L14–17UN
Sat 10/1Northwestern at Penn State+25.5L7–1750.0L7–17UY
Sat 10/8Northwestern vs Wisconsin+10.0L7–4244.5L7–42ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/22Northwestern at Maryland+14.0L24–3151.0L24–31OY
Sat 10/29Northwestern at Iowa+11.5L13–3337.0L13–33ON
Sat 11/5Northwestern vs Ohio State+37.5L7–2155.0L7–21UY
Sat 11/12Northwestern at Minnesota+17.0L3–3140.5L3–31UN
Sat 11/19Northwestern at Purdue+17.5L9–1744.5L9–17UY
Sat 11/26Northwestern vs Illinois+15.0L3–4138.0L3–41ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2022 season
Illinois PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Illinois
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Illinois
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Illinois
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Illinois
+0.325
Northwestern
-0.013
Illinois Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Illinois
+0.468
Northwestern
+0.218
Illinois Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Illinois
0.221
Northwestern
0.125
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Illinois Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Illinois
+7.394
Northwestern
+4.876
Illinois Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Illinois
+0.889
Northwestern
+0.700
Illinois Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Illinois
69.9
Northwestern
73.1
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Illinois Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Illinois Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Illinois
8.0
Northwestern
-0.6
Offense Rating
Illinois
18.9
Northwestern
16.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Illinois
10.9
Northwestern
16.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Illinois Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Illinois #74
0.90
Northwestern #138
0.10
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Illinois #18
0.60
Northwestern #43
1.30
Illinois +0.80
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Illinois Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Illinois #1
59.6
Northwestern #1
16.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Illinois #14
23.3
Northwestern #133
72.0
Illinois +43.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Illinois with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Illinois
Bret Bielema #1
5–7 (42%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Barry Lunney Jr. Yr 1 #1
DC Ryan Walters Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Northwestern
Pat Fitzgerald #1
109–89 (55%) · Yr 17 at school
OC Mike Bajakian Yr 2 #1
DC Jim O'Neil Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself