Matchup Prediction
Minnesota
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Minnesota entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Minnesota wins
Solid
Game Control
64.9%
Minnesota wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Minnesota -4.5
O/U 40.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Minnesota 2022 Schedule
Minnesota's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | Minnesota vs New Mexico State | -36.0W38–0 | 52.5 | W38–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Minnesota vs Western Illinois | -41.0W62–10 | 56.5 | W62–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Minnesota vs Colorado | -28.0W49–7 | 47.5 | W49–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Minnesota at Michigan State | -3.0W34–7 | 50.0 | W34–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Minnesota vs Purdue | -9.0L10–20 | 53.0 | L10–20 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/15 | Minnesota at Illinois | -4.5L14–26 | 40.0 | L14–26 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Minnesota at Penn State | +5.5L17–45 | 43.0 | L17–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Minnesota vs Rutgers | -14.0W31–0 | 40.5 | W31–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Minnesota at Nebraska | -14.5W20–13 | 44.5 | W20–13 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Minnesota vs Northwestern | -17.0W31–3 | 40.5 | W31–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Minnesota vs Iowa | -2.0L10–13 | 31.5 | L10–13 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Minnesota at Wisconsin | +3.0W23–16 | 37.0 | W23–16 | O | Y |
| Thu 12/29 | Minnesota vs Syracuse | -10.5W28–20 | 45.0 | W28–20 | O | N |
Illinois 2022 Schedule
Illinois's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/27 | Illinois vs Wyoming | -14.0W38–6 | 42.5 | W38–6 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/2 | Illinois at Indiana | +1.0L20–23 | 47.5 | L20–23 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Illinois vs Virginia | -4.0W24–3 | 55.0 | W24–3 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 9/22 | Illinois vs Chattanooga | -20.0W31–0 | 44.5 | W31–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Illinois at Wisconsin | +6.5W34–10 | 43.0 | W34–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Illinois vs Iowa | -3.5W9–6 | 36.5 | W9–6 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Illinois vs Minnesota | +4.5W26–14 | 40.0 | W26–14 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | Illinois at Nebraska | -7.5W26–9 | 50.5 | W26–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Illinois vs Michigan State | -16.5L15–23 | 41.0 | L15–23 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Illinois vs Purdue | -6.0L24–31 | 44.0 | L24–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Illinois at Michigan | +17.0L17–19 | 41.5 | L17–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Illinois at Northwestern | -15.0W41–3 | 38.0 | W41–3 | O | Y |
| Mon 1/2 | Illinois vs Mississippi State | +3.5L10–19 | 46.5 | L10–19 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Minnesota Edge
Minnesota +1.30
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Minnesota Edge
Minnesota +11.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Illinois
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Illinois
60.8 — 14.8 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Illinois won by 12
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Minnesota. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Minnesota
P. J. Fleck #1
35–23 (60%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Kirk Ciarrocca
Yr 1
#1
DC
Joe Rossi
Yr 2
#1
Illinois
Bret Bielema #1
5–7 (42%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Barry Lunney Jr.
Yr 1
#1
DC
Ryan Walters
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓