Sat, Oct 15 2022
·
Week 7
·
🏟 Commonwealth Stadium
Lexington, KY
·
Turf
·
61,000 cap
Mississippi State✈ 396 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Mississippi State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Mississippi State entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Mississippi State wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Mississippi State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Mississippi State -3.5
O/U 50.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Mississippi State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Mississippi State 2022 Schedule
Mississippi State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Mississippi State vs Memphis | -17.0W49–23 | 58.0 | W49–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Mississippi State at Arizona | -11.5W39–17 | 57.5 | W39–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Mississippi State at LSU | -3.0L16–31 | 53.0 | L16–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Mississippi State vs Bowling Green | -31.0W45–14 | 53.0 | W45–14 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Mississippi State vs Texas A&M | -4.0W42–24 | 45.0 | W42–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Mississippi State vs Arkansas | -8.0W40–17 | 55.5 | W40–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Mississippi State at Kentucky | -3.5L17–27 | 50.5 | L17–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Mississippi State at Alabama | +21.5L6–30 | 61.5 | L6–30 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/5 | Mississippi State vs Auburn | -12.5W39–33 | 50.5 | W39–33 | O | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Mississippi State vs Georgia | +16.5L19–45 | 53.0 | L19–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Mississippi State vs East Tennessee State | -39.0W56–7 | 62.5 | W56–7 | O | Y |
| Thu 11/24 | Mississippi State at Ole Miss | +2.5W24–22 | 63.0 | W24–22 | U | Y |
| Mon 1/2 | Mississippi State vs Illinois | -3.5W19–10 | 46.5 | W19–10 | U | Y |
Kentucky 2022 Schedule
Kentucky's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Kentucky vs Miami (OH) | -15.0W37–13 | 55.0 | W37–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Kentucky at Florida | +6.0W26–16 | 53.0 | W26–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Kentucky vs Youngstown State | -30.0W31–0 | 49.5 | W31–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Kentucky vs Northern Illinois | -27.0W31–23 | 52.5 | W31–23 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Kentucky at Ole Miss | +6.5L19–22 | 55.0 | L19–22 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Kentucky vs South Carolina | -4.0L14–24 | 45.0 | L14–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Kentucky vs Mississippi State | +3.5W27–17 | 50.5 | W27–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | Kentucky at Tennessee | +10.5L6–44 | 62.5 | L6–44 | U | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Kentucky at Missouri | +1.0W21–17 | 40.0 | W21–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Kentucky vs Vanderbilt | -17.0L21–24 | 45.5 | L21–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Kentucky vs Georgia | +22.5L6–16 | 47.5 | L6–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Kentucky vs Louisville | -3.5W26–13 | 42.5 | W26–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/31 | Kentucky vs Iowa | +3.0L0–21 | 31.5 | L0–21 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Mississippi State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Mississippi State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Mississippi State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Mississippi State Edge
Mississippi State +1.63
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Mississippi State Edge
Mississippi State +30.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Kentucky
3 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Kentucky
33.5 — 31.9 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Kentucky won by 10
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Mississippi State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Mississippi State
Mike Leach #1
11–13 (46%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Mike Leach
Yr 2
#1
DC
Zach Arnett
Yr 2
#1
Kentucky
Mark Stoops #1
59–53 (53%)
· Yr 10 at school
OC
Rich Scangarello
Yr 1
#1
DC
Brad White
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓