Fri, Sep 23 2022
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Memorial Stadium
Champaign, IL
·
Turf
·
60,670 cap
Chattanooga✈ 384 mi-1 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2022 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2021 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Illinois wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Illinois -20
O/U 44.5
consensus
Chattanooga 2022 Schedule
Chattanooga's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 9/22 | Chattanooga at Illinois | +20.0L0–31 | 44.5 | L0–31 | U | N |
Illinois 2022 Schedule
Illinois's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/27 | Illinois vs Wyoming | -14.0W38–6 | 42.5 | W38–6 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/2 | Illinois at Indiana | +1.0L20–23 | 47.5 | L20–23 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Illinois vs Virginia | -4.0W24–3 | 55.0 | W24–3 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 9/22 | Illinois vs Chattanooga | -20.0W31–0 | 44.5 | W31–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Illinois at Wisconsin | +6.5W34–10 | 43.0 | W34–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Illinois vs Iowa | -3.5W9–6 | 36.5 | W9–6 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Illinois vs Minnesota | +4.5W26–14 | 40.0 | W26–14 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | Illinois at Nebraska | -7.5W26–9 | 50.5 | W26–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Illinois vs Michigan State | -16.5L15–23 | 41.0 | L15–23 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Illinois vs Purdue | -6.0L24–31 | 44.0 | L24–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Illinois at Michigan | +17.0L17–19 | 41.5 | L17–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Illinois at Northwestern | -15.0W41–3 | 38.0 | W41–3 | O | Y |
| Mon 1/2 | Illinois vs Mississippi State | +3.5L10–19 | 46.5 | L10–19 | U | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Chattanooga Edge
Chattanooga +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Illinois Edge
Illinois +29.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓