Michigan State at Illinois Week 10 College Football Matchup Michigan State at Illinois Matchup - Week 10
Sat, Nov 5 2022 · Week 10 · 🏟 Memorial Stadium Champaign, IL · Turf · 60,670 cap
Michigan State✈ 265 mi-1 hr TZ
23 15
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Michigan State
13
Illinois
30
P&R Line Illinois -17
P&R Total O/U 42
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Illinois -16.5 · O/U 41.0
Matchup Prediction
Illinois has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Illinois entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Illinois wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Illinois wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Illinois -16.5
O/U 41.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Illinois · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Michigan State 2nd straight Road Game
Michigan State 2022 Schedule
Michigan State's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/2Michigan State vs Western Michigan-22.0W35–1354.5W35–13UN
Sat 9/10Michigan State vs Akron-34.5W52–056.0W52–0UY
Sat 9/17Michigan State at Washington+3.5L28–3956.5L28–39ON
Sat 9/24Michigan State vs Minnesota+3.0L7–3450.0L7–34UN
Sat 10/1Michigan State at Maryland+7.5L13–2758.5L13–27UN
Sat 10/8Michigan State vs Ohio State+27.0L20–4964.5L20–49ON
Sat 10/15Michigan State vs Wisconsin+7.0W34–2849.5W34–28OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/29Michigan State at Michigan+22.0L7–2955.0L7–29UY
Sat 11/5Michigan State at Illinois+16.5W23–1541.0W23–15UY
Sat 11/12Michigan State vs Rutgers-10.0W27–2141.0W27–21ON
Sat 11/19Michigan State vs Indiana-12.0L31–3947.0L31–39ON
Sat 11/26Michigan State at Penn State+19.0L16–3554.5L16–35UY
Illinois 2022 Schedule
Illinois's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/27Illinois vs Wyoming-14.0W38–642.5W38–6OY
Fri 9/2Illinois at Indiana+1.0L20–2347.5L20–23UN
Sat 9/10Illinois vs Virginia-4.0W24–355.0W24–3UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 9/22Illinois vs Chattanooga-20.0W31–044.5W31–0UY
Sat 10/1Illinois at Wisconsin+6.5W34–1043.0W34–10OY
Sat 10/8Illinois vs Iowa-3.5W9–636.5W9–6UN
Sat 10/15Illinois vs Minnesota+4.5W26–1440.0W26–14UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/29Illinois at Nebraska-7.5W26–950.5W26–9UY
Sat 11/5Illinois vs Michigan State-16.5L15–2341.0L15–23UN
Sat 11/12Illinois vs Purdue-6.0L24–3144.0L24–31ON
Sat 11/19Illinois at Michigan+17.0L17–1941.5L17–19UY
Sat 11/26Illinois at Northwestern-15.0W41–338.0W41–3OY
Mon 1/2Illinois vs Mississippi State+3.5L10–1946.5L10–19UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2022 season
Illinois PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Illinois
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Illinois
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Illinois
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Michigan State
+0.115
Illinois
+0.419
Illinois Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Michigan State
+0.313
Illinois
+0.705
Illinois Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Michigan State
0.150
Illinois
0.221
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Illinois Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Michigan State
+5.976
Illinois
+7.179
Illinois Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Michigan State
+0.728
Illinois
+0.896
Illinois Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Michigan State
71.9
Illinois
69.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Illinois Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Illinois Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Michigan State
-1.7
Illinois
8.0
Offense Rating
Michigan State
15.7
Illinois
18.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Michigan State
17.4
Illinois
10.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Illinois Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Michigan State #96
1.00
Illinois #74
1.14
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Michigan State #133
2.00
Illinois #18
0.29
Illinois +0.14
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Illinois Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Michigan State #1
24.8
Illinois #1
70.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Michigan State #115
69.1
Illinois #14
13.4
Illinois +45.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Illinois with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Michigan State
Mel Tucker #1
13–7 (65%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Jay Johnson Yr 2 #1
DC Scottie Hazelton Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Illinois
Bret Bielema #1
5–7 (42%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Barry Lunney Jr. Yr 1 #1
DC Ryan Walters Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself