Sat, Sep 17 2022
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Tiger Stadium
Baton Rouge, LA
·
Turf
·
102,321 cap
Mississippi State✈ 252 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Mississippi State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Mississippi State entering this game.
Momentum Control
80.6%
Mississippi State wins
Strong
Game Control
58.3%
Mississippi State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Mississippi State -3
O/U 53.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → LSU
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Mississippi State 2022 Schedule
Mississippi State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Mississippi State vs Memphis | -17.0W49–23 | 58.0 | W49–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Mississippi State at Arizona | -11.5W39–17 | 57.5 | W39–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Mississippi State at LSU | -3.0L16–31 | 53.0 | L16–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Mississippi State vs Bowling Green | -31.0W45–14 | 53.0 | W45–14 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Mississippi State vs Texas A&M | -4.0W42–24 | 45.0 | W42–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Mississippi State vs Arkansas | -8.0W40–17 | 55.5 | W40–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Mississippi State at Kentucky | -3.5L17–27 | 50.5 | L17–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Mississippi State at Alabama | +21.5L6–30 | 61.5 | L6–30 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/5 | Mississippi State vs Auburn | -12.5W39–33 | 50.5 | W39–33 | O | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Mississippi State vs Georgia | +16.5L19–45 | 53.0 | L19–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Mississippi State vs East Tennessee State | -39.0W56–7 | 62.5 | W56–7 | O | Y |
| Thu 11/24 | Mississippi State at Ole Miss | +2.5W24–22 | 63.0 | W24–22 | U | Y |
| Mon 1/2 | Mississippi State vs Illinois | -3.5W19–10 | 46.5 | W19–10 | U | Y |
LSU 2022 Schedule
LSU's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 9/4 | LSU vs Florida State | -4.5L23–24 | 51.0 | L23–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | LSU vs Southern | -44.5W65–17 | 58.0 | W65–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | LSU vs Mississippi State | +3.0W31–16 | 53.0 | W31–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | LSU vs New Mexico | -31.5W38–0 | 44.0 | W38–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | LSU at Auburn | -8.0W21–17 | 44.5 | W21–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/8 | LSU vs Tennessee | +2.5L13–40 | 63.0 | L13–40 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | LSU at Florida | +2.0W45–35 | 51.5 | W45–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | LSU vs Ole Miss | +0.0W45–20 | 64.0 | W45–20 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/5 | LSU vs Alabama | +13.5W32–31 | 56.5 | W32–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | LSU at Arkansas | -5.0W13–10 | 59.0 | W13–10 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | LSU vs UAB | -15.5W41–10 | 50.5 | W41–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | LSU at Texas A&M | -10.0L23–38 | 47.5 | L23–38 | O | N |
| Sat 12/3 | LSU vs Georgia | +17.0L30–50 | 52.0 | L30–50 | O | N |
| Mon 1/2 | LSU vs Purdue | -15.0W63–7 | 54.0 | W63–7 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ LSU
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Mississippi State Edge
Mississippi State +2.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 80.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Mississippi State Edge
Mississippi State +6.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
LSU
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Mississippi State
23.9 — 61.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
LSU won by 15
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Mississippi State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Mississippi State
Mike Leach #1
11–13 (46%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Mike Leach
Yr 2
#1
DC
Zach Arnett
Yr 2
#1
LSU
Brian Kelly #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Mike Denbrock
Yr 1
#1
DC
Matt House
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓