Sat, Oct 1 2022
·
Week 5
·
🏟 Brooks Stadium
Conway, SC
·
Turf
·
9,214 cap
Georgia Southern✈ 186 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Coastal Carolina wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Coastal Carolina -10
O/U 69.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Georgia Southern 2022 Schedule
Georgia Southern's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Georgia Southern vs Morgan State | -39.5W59–7 | 53.5 | W59–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Georgia Southern at Nebraska | +23.5W45–42 | 64.0 | W45–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Georgia Southern at UAB | +11.5L21–35 | 59.0 | L21–35 | U | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Georgia Southern vs Ball State | -9.5W34–23 | 67.0 | W34–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina | +10.0L30–34 | 69.5 | L30–34 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Georgia Southern at Georgia State | +2.5L33–41 | 67.5 | L33–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Georgia Southern vs James Madison | +13.0W45–38 | 68.0 | W45–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Georgia Southern at Old Dominion | +1.5W28–23 | 66.0 | W28–23 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/5 | Georgia Southern vs South Alabama | +3.5L31–38 | 60.5 | L31–38 | O | N |
| Thu 11/10 | Georgia Southern at Louisiana | +3.5L17–36 | 63.0 | L17–36 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Georgia Southern vs Marshall | +6.0L10–23 | 52.5 | L10–23 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Georgia Southern vs App State | +6.5W51–48 | 66.0 | W51–48 | O | Y |
| Tue 12/27 | Georgia Southern vs Buffalo | -6.0L21–23 | 67.0 | L21–23 | U | N |
Coastal Carolina 2022 Schedule
Coastal Carolina's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Coastal Carolina vs Army | -1.5W38–28 | 54.0 | W38–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Coastal Carolina vs Gardner-Webb | -32.5W31–27 | 66.5 | W31–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Coastal Carolina vs Buffalo | -12.0W38–26 | 60.0 | W38–26 | O | N |
| Thu 9/22 | Coastal Carolina at Georgia State | -2.5W41–24 | 63.5 | W41–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Coastal Carolina vs Georgia Southern | -10.0W34–30 | 69.5 | W34–30 | U | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Coastal Carolina at UL Monroe | -12.5W28–21 | 58.0 | W28–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Coastal Carolina vs Old Dominion | -11.0L21–49 | 58.5 | L21–49 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | Coastal Carolina at Marshall | +2.5W24–13 | 54.0 | W24–13 | U | Y |
| Thu 11/3 | Coastal Carolina vs App State | +3.0W35–28 | 65.5 | W35–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Coastal Carolina vs Southern Miss | -4.5W26–23 | 48.0 | W26–23 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Coastal Carolina at Virginia | +2.0 | 44.5 | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/26 | Coastal Carolina at James Madison | +15.5L7–47 | 53.0 | L7–47 | O | N |
| Sat 12/3 | Coastal Carolina at Troy | +7.0L26–45 | 49.0 | L26–45 | O | N |
| Tue 12/27 | Coastal Carolina vs East Carolina | +7.0L29–53 | 67.5 | L29–53 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Georgia Southern +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Coastal Carolina Edge
Coastal Carolina +13.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Coastal Carolina with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Georgia Southern
Clay Helton #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Bryan Ellis
Yr 1
#1
DC
Will Harris
Yr 1
#1
Coastal Carolina
Jamey Chadwell #1
30–19 (61%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Willy Korn
Yr 2
#1
DC
Chad Staggs
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓