Sun, Nov 13 2022
·
Week 11
·
🏟 Brooks Stadium
Conway, SC
·
Turf
·
9,214 cap
Southern Miss✈ 624 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Coastal Carolina
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Coastal Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Coastal Carolina wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Coastal Carolina wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Coastal Carolina -4.5
O/U 48.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Southern Miss
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Southern Miss 2022 Schedule
Southern Miss's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Southern Miss vs Liberty | +3.5L27–29 | 50.0 | L27–29 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Southern Miss at Miami | +27.5L7–30 | 51.0 | L7–30 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Southern Miss vs Northwestern State | -32.5W64–10 | 50.5 | W64–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Southern Miss at Tulane | +12.0W27–24 | 48.5 | W27–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/8 | Southern Miss at Troy | +7.0L10–27 | 44.0 | L10–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Southern Miss vs Arkansas State | -4.5W20–19 | 53.0 | W20–19 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Southern Miss at Texas State | -2.5W20–14 | 43.0 | W20–14 | U | Y |
| Thu 10/27 | Southern Miss vs Louisiana | +2.5W39–24 | 42.5 | W39–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Southern Miss vs Georgia State | -2.0L14–42 | 47.5 | L14–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Southern Miss at Coastal Carolina | +4.5L23–26 | 48.0 | L23–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Southern Miss vs South Alabama | +7.5L20–27 | 45.0 | L20–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Southern Miss at UL Monroe | -3.0W20–10 | 49.5 | W20–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/17 | Southern Miss vs Rice | -7.0W38–24 | 46.5 | W38–24 | O | Y |
Coastal Carolina 2022 Schedule
Coastal Carolina's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Coastal Carolina vs Army | -1.5W38–28 | 54.0 | W38–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Coastal Carolina vs Gardner-Webb | -32.5W31–27 | 66.5 | W31–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Coastal Carolina vs Buffalo | -12.0W38–26 | 60.0 | W38–26 | O | N |
| Thu 9/22 | Coastal Carolina at Georgia State | -2.5W41–24 | 63.5 | W41–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Coastal Carolina vs Georgia Southern | -10.0W34–30 | 69.5 | W34–30 | U | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Coastal Carolina at UL Monroe | -12.5W28–21 | 58.0 | W28–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Coastal Carolina vs Old Dominion | -11.0L21–49 | 58.5 | L21–49 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | Coastal Carolina at Marshall | +2.5W24–13 | 54.0 | W24–13 | U | Y |
| Thu 11/3 | Coastal Carolina vs App State | +3.0W35–28 | 65.5 | W35–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Coastal Carolina vs Southern Miss | -4.5W26–23 | 48.0 | W26–23 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Coastal Carolina at Virginia | +2.0 | 44.5 | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/26 | Coastal Carolina at James Madison | +15.5L7–47 | 53.0 | L7–47 | O | N |
| Sat 12/3 | Coastal Carolina at Troy | +7.0L26–45 | 49.0 | L26–45 | O | N |
| Tue 12/27 | Coastal Carolina vs East Carolina | +7.0L29–53 | 67.5 | L29–53 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Southern Miss
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Coastal Carolina Edge
Coastal Carolina +0.14
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Coastal Carolina Edge
Coastal Carolina +25.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Southern Miss
2 — 3 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Coastal Carolina
61.2 — 16.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Coastal Carolina won by 3
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Coastal Carolina with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Southern Miss
Will Hall #1
3–9 (25%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Sam Gregg
Yr 1
#1
DC
Austin Armstrong
Yr 2
#1
Coastal Carolina
Jamey Chadwell #1
30–19 (61%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Willy Korn
Yr 2
#1
DC
Chad Staggs
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓