Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina Week 7 College Football Matchup Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina Matchup - Week 7
Sat, Oct 15 2022 · Week 7 · 🏟 Brooks Stadium Conway, SC · Turf · 9,214 cap
Old Dominion✈ 262 miSame TZ
49 21
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Old Dominion
20
CCU -11
Coastal Carolina
36
P&R Line Coastal Carolina -16
P&R Total O/U 56.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Coastal Carolina -11 · O/U 58.5
Matchup Prediction
Coastal Carolina has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Coastal Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Coastal Carolina wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Coastal Carolina wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Coastal Carolina -11
O/U 58.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Coastal Carolina · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Old Dominion Coming off BYE
Old Dominion 2022 Schedule
Old Dominion's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/2Old Dominion vs Virginia Tech+6.0W20–1748.5W20–17UY
Sat 9/10Old Dominion at East Carolina+13.0L21–3949.5L21–39ON
Sat 9/17Old Dominion at Virginia+8.0L14–1652.5L14–16UY
Sat 9/24Old Dominion vs Arkansas State-5.0W29–2655.5W29–26UN
Sat 10/1Old Dominion vs Liberty+3.5L24–3848.0L24–38ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/15Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina+11.0W49–2158.5W49–21OY
Sat 10/22Old Dominion vs Georgia Southern-1.5L23–2866.0L23–28UN
Sat 10/29Old Dominion at Georgia State+3.5L17–3153.5L17–31UN
Sat 11/5Old Dominion vs Marshall+3.5L0–1246.5L0–12UN
Sat 11/12Old Dominion vs James Madison+7.5L3–3748.0L3–37UN
Sat 11/19Old Dominion at App State+16.5L14–2750.5L14–27UY
Sat 11/26Old Dominion at South Alabama+16.5L20–2747.0L20–27UY
Coastal Carolina 2022 Schedule
Coastal Carolina's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3Coastal Carolina vs Army-1.5W38–2854.0W38–28OY
Sat 9/10Coastal Carolina vs Gardner-Webb-32.5W31–2766.5W31–27UN
Sat 9/17Coastal Carolina vs Buffalo-12.0W38–2660.0W38–26ON
Thu 9/22Coastal Carolina at Georgia State-2.5W41–2463.5W41–24OY
Sat 10/1Coastal Carolina vs Georgia Southern-10.0W34–3069.5W34–30UN
Sat 10/8Coastal Carolina at UL Monroe-12.5W28–2158.0W28–21UN
Sat 10/15Coastal Carolina vs Old Dominion-11.0L21–4958.5L21–49ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/29Coastal Carolina at Marshall+2.5W24–1354.0W24–13UY
Thu 11/3Coastal Carolina vs App State+3.0W35–2865.5W35–28UY
Sat 11/12Coastal Carolina vs Southern Miss-4.5W26–2348.0W26–23ON
Sat 11/19Coastal Carolina at Virginia+2.044.5
Sat 11/26Coastal Carolina at James Madison+15.5L7–4753.0L7–47ON
Sat 12/3Coastal Carolina at Troy+7.0L26–4549.0L26–45ON
Tue 12/27Coastal Carolina vs East Carolina+7.0L29–5367.5L29–53ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2022 season
Coastal Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Coastal Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Old Dominion
+0.438
Coastal Carolina
+0.530
Coastal Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Old Dominion
+0.682
Coastal Carolina
+0.849
Coastal Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Old Dominion
0.150
Coastal Carolina
0.183
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Coastal Carolina Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Old Dominion
+7.452
Coastal Carolina
+6.998
Old Dominion Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Old Dominion
+0.794
Coastal Carolina
+0.903
Coastal Carolina Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Old Dominion
72.1
Coastal Carolina
71.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Coastal Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Old Dominion Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Old Dominion
-0.6
Coastal Carolina
-14.3
Offense Rating
Old Dominion
13.4
Coastal Carolina
7.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Old Dominion
14.0
Coastal Carolina
22.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Coastal Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Old Dominion #106
0.20
Coastal Carolina #17
0.67
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Old Dominion #47
1.00
Coastal Carolina #121
0.67
Coastal Carolina +0.47
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Coastal Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Old Dominion #1
15.4
Coastal Carolina #1
67.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Old Dominion #123
68.8
Coastal Carolina #58
15.2
Coastal Carolina +51.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Coastal Carolina with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Old Dominion
Ricky Rahne #1
6–7 (46%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Dave Patenaude Yr 1 #1
DC Blake Seiler Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Coastal Carolina
Jamey Chadwell #1
30–19 (61%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Willy Korn Yr 2 #1
DC Chad Staggs Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself