Fri, Nov 25 2022
·
Week 13
·
🏟 Canvas Stadium
Fort Collins, CO
·
Turf
·
41,000 cap
New Mexico✈ 389 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
New Mexico wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Colorado State -7.5
O/U 36.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Colorado State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
New Mexico 2022 Schedule
New Mexico's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | New Mexico vs Maine | -6.0W41–0 | 42.5 | W41–0 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/9 | New Mexico vs Boise State | +17.0L14–31 | 43.5 | L14–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | New Mexico vs UTEP | +2.0W27–10 | 38.0 | W27–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | New Mexico at LSU | +31.5L0–38 | 44.0 | L0–38 | U | N |
| Fri 9/30 | New Mexico at UNLV | +14.0L20–31 | 44.0 | L20–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | New Mexico vs Wyoming | +3.0L14–27 | 37.0 | L14–27 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | New Mexico at New Mexico State | -7.0L9–21 | 38.5 | L9–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | New Mexico vs Fresno State | +9.5L9–41 | 40.0 | L9–41 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/5 | New Mexico at Utah State | +14.5L10–27 | 42.5 | L10–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | New Mexico at Air Force | +21.0L3–35 | 37.5 | L3–35 | O | N |
| Fri 11/18 | New Mexico vs San Diego State | +15.0L10–34 | 36.0 | L10–34 | O | N |
| Fri 11/25 | New Mexico at Colorado State | +7.5L0–17 | 36.0 | L0–17 | U | N |
Colorado State 2022 Schedule
Colorado State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Colorado State at Michigan | +31.0L7–51 | 60.5 | L7–51 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Colorado State vs Middle Tennessee | -13.5L19–34 | 58.0 | L19–34 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Colorado State at Washington State | +17.0L7–38 | 51.5 | L7–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Colorado State vs Sacramento State | +4.5L10–41 | 59.5 | L10–41 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/7 | Colorado State at Nevada | +3.5W17–14 | 44.0 | W17–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Colorado State vs Utah State | +14.0L13–17 | 45.5 | L13–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Colorado State vs Hawai'i | -6.0W17–13 | 46.0 | W17–13 | U | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Colorado State at Boise State | +25.0L10–49 | 42.5 | L10–49 | O | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Colorado State at San José State | +24.0L16–28 | 44.5 | L16–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Colorado State vs Wyoming | +8.5L13–14 | 42.5 | L13–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Colorado State at Air Force | +22.0L12–24 | 43.0 | L12–24 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/25 | Colorado State vs New Mexico | -7.5W17–0 | 36.0 | W17–0 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Colorado State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
New Mexico +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
New Mexico Edge
New Mexico +12.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
New Mexico
Danny Gonzales #1
5–14 (26%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Derek Warehime
Yr 1
#1
DC
Rocky Long
Yr 2
#1
Colorado State
Jay Norvell #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Matt Mumme
Yr 1
#1
DC
Freddie Banks
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓