Sat, Sep 24 2022
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Tiger Stadium
Baton Rouge, LA
·
Turf
·
102,321 cap
New Mexico✈ 952 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
LSU
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
LSU entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
LSU wins
Solid
Game Control
50.6%
LSU wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
LSU -31.5
O/U 44.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → LSU
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
New Mexico 2022 Schedule
New Mexico's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | New Mexico vs Maine | -6.0W41–0 | 42.5 | W41–0 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/9 | New Mexico vs Boise State | +17.0L14–31 | 43.5 | L14–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | New Mexico vs UTEP | +2.0W27–10 | 38.0 | W27–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | New Mexico at LSU | +31.5L0–38 | 44.0 | L0–38 | U | N |
| Fri 9/30 | New Mexico at UNLV | +14.0L20–31 | 44.0 | L20–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | New Mexico vs Wyoming | +3.0L14–27 | 37.0 | L14–27 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | New Mexico at New Mexico State | -7.0L9–21 | 38.5 | L9–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | New Mexico vs Fresno State | +9.5L9–41 | 40.0 | L9–41 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/5 | New Mexico at Utah State | +14.5L10–27 | 42.5 | L10–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | New Mexico at Air Force | +21.0L3–35 | 37.5 | L3–35 | O | N |
| Fri 11/18 | New Mexico vs San Diego State | +15.0L10–34 | 36.0 | L10–34 | O | N |
| Fri 11/25 | New Mexico at Colorado State | +7.5L0–17 | 36.0 | L0–17 | U | N |
LSU 2022 Schedule
LSU's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 9/4 | LSU vs Florida State | -4.5L23–24 | 51.0 | L23–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | LSU vs Southern | -44.5W65–17 | 58.0 | W65–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | LSU vs Mississippi State | +3.0W31–16 | 53.0 | W31–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | LSU vs New Mexico | -31.5W38–0 | 44.0 | W38–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | LSU at Auburn | -8.0W21–17 | 44.5 | W21–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/8 | LSU vs Tennessee | +2.5L13–40 | 63.0 | L13–40 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | LSU at Florida | +2.0W45–35 | 51.5 | W45–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | LSU vs Ole Miss | +0.0W45–20 | 64.0 | W45–20 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/5 | LSU vs Alabama | +13.5W32–31 | 56.5 | W32–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | LSU at Arkansas | -5.0W13–10 | 59.0 | W13–10 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | LSU vs UAB | -15.5W41–10 | 50.5 | W41–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | LSU at Texas A&M | -10.0L23–38 | 47.5 | L23–38 | O | N |
| Sat 12/3 | LSU vs Georgia | +17.0L30–50 | 52.0 | L30–50 | O | N |
| Mon 1/2 | LSU vs Purdue | -15.0W63–7 | 54.0 | W63–7 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ LSU
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
LSU Edge
LSU +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
LSU Edge
LSU +0.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
LSU
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
LSU
97.9 — 0.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
LSU won by 38
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on LSU, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
New Mexico
Danny Gonzales #1
5–14 (26%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Derek Warehime
Yr 1
#1
DC
Rocky Long
Yr 2
#1
LSU
Brian Kelly #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Mike Denbrock
Yr 1
#1
DC
Matt House
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓