Sat, Sep 24 2022
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Spartan Stadium
East Lansing, MI
·
Turf
·
75,005 cap
Minnesota✈ 462 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Minnesota
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Minnesota entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Minnesota wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Minnesota wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Minnesota -3
O/U 50.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Minnesota
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Minnesota 2022 Schedule
Minnesota's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | Minnesota vs New Mexico State | -36.0W38–0 | 52.5 | W38–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Minnesota vs Western Illinois | -41.0W62–10 | 56.5 | W62–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Minnesota vs Colorado | -28.0W49–7 | 47.5 | W49–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Minnesota at Michigan State | -3.0W34–7 | 50.0 | W34–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Minnesota vs Purdue | -9.0L10–20 | 53.0 | L10–20 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/15 | Minnesota at Illinois | -4.5L14–26 | 40.0 | L14–26 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Minnesota at Penn State | +5.5L17–45 | 43.0 | L17–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Minnesota vs Rutgers | -14.0W31–0 | 40.5 | W31–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Minnesota at Nebraska | -14.5W20–13 | 44.5 | W20–13 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Minnesota vs Northwestern | -17.0W31–3 | 40.5 | W31–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Minnesota vs Iowa | -2.0L10–13 | 31.5 | L10–13 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Minnesota at Wisconsin | +3.0W23–16 | 37.0 | W23–16 | O | Y |
| Thu 12/29 | Minnesota vs Syracuse | -10.5W28–20 | 45.0 | W28–20 | O | N |
Michigan State 2022 Schedule
Michigan State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/2 | Michigan State vs Western Michigan | -22.0W35–13 | 54.5 | W35–13 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Michigan State vs Akron | -34.5W52–0 | 56.0 | W52–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Michigan State at Washington | +3.5L28–39 | 56.5 | L28–39 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Michigan State vs Minnesota | +3.0L7–34 | 50.0 | L7–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Michigan State at Maryland | +7.5L13–27 | 58.5 | L13–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Michigan State vs Ohio State | +27.0L20–49 | 64.5 | L20–49 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Michigan State vs Wisconsin | +7.0W34–28 | 49.5 | W34–28 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | Michigan State at Michigan | +22.0L7–29 | 55.0 | L7–29 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Michigan State at Illinois | +16.5W23–15 | 41.0 | W23–15 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Michigan State vs Rutgers | -10.0W27–21 | 41.0 | W27–21 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Michigan State vs Indiana | -12.0L31–39 | 47.0 | L31–39 | O | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Michigan State at Penn State | +19.0L16–35 | 54.5 | L16–35 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Minnesota
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Minnesota Edge
Minnesota +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Minnesota Edge
Minnesota +36.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Minnesota with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Minnesota
P. J. Fleck #1
35–23 (60%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Kirk Ciarrocca
Yr 1
#1
DC
Joe Rossi
Yr 2
#1
Michigan State
Mel Tucker #1
13–7 (65%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Jay Johnson
Yr 2
#1
DC
Scottie Hazelton
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓