Fri, Sep 2 2022
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Spartan Stadium
East Lansing, MI
·
Turf
·
75,005 cap
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Michigan State -22
O/U 54.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Michigan State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Western Michigan 2022 Schedule
Western Michigan's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/2 | Western Michigan at Michigan State | +22.0L13–35 | 54.5 | L13–35 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Western Michigan at Ball State | -6.5W37–30 | 51.5 | W37–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Western Michigan vs Pittsburgh | +10.0L13–34 | 46.0 | L13–34 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Western Michigan at San José State | +6.5L6–34 | 49.0 | L6–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Western Michigan vs New Hampshire | -15.0W44–7 | 52.5 | W44–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Western Michigan vs Eastern Michigan | -4.5L23–45 | 55.5 | L23–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Western Michigan vs Ohio | -2.0L14–33 | 61.5 | L14–33 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Western Michigan at Miami (OH) | +7.0W16–10 | 44.0 | W16–10 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/2 | Western Michigan at Bowling Green | +5.0L9–13 | 48.0 | L9–13 | U | Y |
| Wed 11/9 | Western Michigan vs Northern Illinois | +1.0L21–24 | 49.0 | L21–24 | U | N |
| Wed 11/16 | Western Michigan at Central Michigan | +10.0W12–10 | 49.0 | W12–10 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/25 | Western Michigan vs Toledo | +8.5W20–14 | 50.5 | W20–14 | U | Y |
Michigan State 2022 Schedule
Michigan State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/2 | Michigan State vs Western Michigan | -22.0W35–13 | 54.5 | W35–13 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Michigan State vs Akron | -34.5W52–0 | 56.0 | W52–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Michigan State at Washington | +3.5L28–39 | 56.5 | L28–39 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Michigan State vs Minnesota | +3.0L7–34 | 50.0 | L7–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Michigan State at Maryland | +7.5L13–27 | 58.5 | L13–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Michigan State vs Ohio State | +27.0L20–49 | 64.5 | L20–49 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Michigan State vs Wisconsin | +7.0W34–28 | 49.5 | W34–28 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | Michigan State at Michigan | +22.0L7–29 | 55.0 | L7–29 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Michigan State at Illinois | +16.5W23–15 | 41.0 | W23–15 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Michigan State vs Rutgers | -10.0W27–21 | 41.0 | W27–21 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Michigan State vs Indiana | -12.0L31–39 | 47.0 | L31–39 | O | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Michigan State at Penn State | +19.0L16–35 | 54.5 | L16–35 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Michigan State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Western Michigan Edge
Western Michigan +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Western Michigan Edge
Western Michigan +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Michigan State
3 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Michigan State
89.2 — 2.7 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Michigan State won by 22
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Michigan State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Western Michigan
Tim Lester #1
32–25 (56%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Eric Evans
Yr 1
#1
DC
Lou Esposito
Yr 2
#1
Michigan State
Mel Tucker #1
13–7 (65%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Jay Johnson
Yr 2
#1
DC
Scottie Hazelton
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓