Sat, Sep 17 2022
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Jack Trice Stadium
Ames, IA
·
Turf
·
61,500 cap
Ohio✈ 631 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Iowa State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Iowa State entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Iowa State wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Iowa State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Iowa State -20
O/U 48.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Ohio 2022 Schedule
Ohio's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Ohio vs Florida Atlantic | +6.0W41–38 | 51.0 | W41–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Ohio at Penn State | +28.0L10–46 | 55.0 | L10–46 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Ohio at Iowa State | +20.0L10–43 | 48.0 | L10–43 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Ohio vs Fordham | -16.5W59–52 | 73.5 | W59–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Ohio at Kent State | +13.0L24–31 | 65.5 | L24–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Ohio vs Akron | -10.0W55–34 | 58.5 | W55–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Ohio at Western Michigan | +2.0W33–14 | 61.5 | W33–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Ohio vs Northern Illinois | +2.5W24–17 | 65.5 | W24–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/1 | Ohio vs Buffalo | +2.5W45–24 | 61.0 | W45–24 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/8 | Ohio at Miami (OH) | -2.5W37–21 | 52.0 | W37–21 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/15 | Ohio at Ball State | -3.5W32–18 | 57.5 | W32–18 | U | Y |
| Tue 11/22 | Ohio vs Bowling Green | -5.5W38–14 | 52.5 | W38–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/3 | Ohio vs Toledo | +3.5L7–17 | 54.5 | L7–17 | U | N |
| Fri 12/30 | Ohio vs Wyoming | -3.0W30–27 | 43.0 | W30–27 | O | N |
Iowa State 2022 Schedule
Iowa State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Iowa State vs Southeast Missouri State | -33.5W42–10 | 54.5 | W42–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Iowa State at Iowa | +3.5W10–7 | 39.0 | W10–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Iowa State vs Ohio | -20.0W43–10 | 48.0 | W43–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Iowa State vs Baylor | -2.5L24–31 | 45.0 | L24–31 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Iowa State at Kansas | -3.5L11–14 | 59.0 | L11–14 | U | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Iowa State vs Kansas State | +1.0L9–10 | 45.0 | L9–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Iowa State at Texas | +15.5L21–24 | 48.5 | L21–24 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | Iowa State vs Oklahoma | +1.5L13–27 | 58.0 | L13–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Iowa State vs West Virginia | -6.5W31–14 | 49.5 | W31–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Iowa State at Oklahoma State | -2.5L14–20 | 47.5 | L14–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Iowa State vs Texas Tech | -3.5L10–14 | 47.5 | L10–14 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Iowa State at TCU | +9.5L14–62 | 46.0 | L14–62 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Iowa State Edge
Iowa State +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Iowa State Edge
Iowa State +44.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Iowa State
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Iowa State
96.3 — 1.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Iowa State won by 33
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Iowa State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Ohio
Tim Albin #1
3–9 (25%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Scott Isphording
Yr 1
#1
DC
Spence Nowinsky
Yr 1
#1
Iowa State
Matt Campbell #1
42–32 (57%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Tom Manning
Yr 2
#1
DC
Jon Heacock
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓