Bowling Green at Northern Illinois Week 7 College Football Matchup Bowling Green at Northern Illinois Matchup - Week 7
Sat, Oct 16 2021 · Week 7 · 🏟 Brigham Field at Huskie Stadium DeKalb, IL · Turf · 23,595 cap
Bowling Green✈ 268 mi-1 hr TZ
26 34
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Bowling Green
22
Northern Illinois
30
P&R Line Northern Illinois -8
P&R Total O/U 51.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Northern Illinois -9 · O/U 44.5
Matchup Prediction
Northern Illinois has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Northern Illinois entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Northern Illinois wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Northern Illinois wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Northern Illinois -9
O/U 44.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Northern Illinois · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Bowling Green 2021 Schedule
Bowling Green's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/2Bowling Green at Tennessee+37.0L6–3860.5L6–38UY
Sat 9/11Bowling Green vs South Alabama+14.5L19–2248.0L19–22UY
Sat 9/18Bowling Green vs Murray State+2.5W27–1044.0W27–10UY
Sat 9/25Bowling Green at Minnesota+30.5W14–1052.5W14–10UY
Sat 10/2Bowling Green at Kent State+16.5L20–2756.0L20–27UY
Sat 10/9Bowling Green vs Akron-14.0L20–3546.0L20–35ON
Sat 10/16Bowling Green at Northern Illinois+9.0L26–3444.5L26–34OY
Sat 10/23Bowling Green vs Eastern Michigan+4.5L24–5549.5L24–55ON
Sat 10/30Bowling Green at Buffalo+13.5W56–4451.5W56–44OY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/10Bowling Green vs Toledo+10.5L17–4950.0L17–49ON
Tue 11/16Bowling Green at Miami (OH)+17.0L7–3452.0L7–34UN
Fri 11/26Bowling Green vs Ohio+6.0W21–1048.0W21–10UY
Northern Illinois 2021 Schedule
Northern Illinois's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Northern Illinois at Georgia Tech+19.0W22–2157.0W22–21UY
Sat 9/11Northern Illinois vs Wyoming+7.0L43–5044.0L43–50OY
Sat 9/18Northern Illinois at Michigan+27.5L10–6354.5L10–63ON
Sat 9/25Northern Illinois vs Maine-21.5W41–1462.0W41–14UY
Sat 10/2Northern Illinois vs Eastern Michigan+0.0W27–2062.5W27–20UY
Sat 10/9Northern Illinois at Toledo+13.0W22–2051.5W22–20UY
Sat 10/16Northern Illinois vs Bowling Green-9.0W34–2644.5W34–26ON
Sat 10/23Northern Illinois at Central Michigan+6.0W39–3856.0W39–38OY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/3Northern Illinois at Kent State+3.5L47–5272.0L47–52ON
Wed 11/10Northern Illinois vs Ball State+3.0W30–2959.5W30–29UY
Wed 11/17Northern Illinois at Buffalo-2.0W33–2759.5W33–27OY
Tue 11/23Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan+6.5L21–4260.0L21–42ON
Sat 12/4Northern Illinois vs Kent State+3.5W41–2375.5W41–23UY
Fri 12/17Northern Illinois vs Coastal Carolina+11.0L41–4763.0L41–47OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Northern Illinois PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Northern Illinois
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Bowling Green
+0.435
Northern Illinois
+0.482
Northern Illinois Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Bowling Green
+0.466
Northern Illinois
+0.538
Northern Illinois Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Bowling Green
0.167
Northern Illinois
0.134
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Bowling Green Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Bowling Green
+7.969
Northern Illinois
+8.372
Northern Illinois Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Bowling Green
+0.852
Northern Illinois
+0.895
Northern Illinois Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Bowling Green
69.6
Northern Illinois
70.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Bowling Green Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Bowling Green Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Bowling Green
-9.7
Northern Illinois
-17.8
Offense Rating
Bowling Green
10.9
Northern Illinois
8.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Bowling Green
20.7
Northern Illinois
26.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Northern Illinois Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Bowling Green #86
0.50
Northern Illinois #47
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Bowling Green #86
1.00
Northern Illinois #134
1.80
Northern Illinois +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Northern Illinois Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Bowling Green #1
31.6
Northern Illinois #1
42.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Bowling Green #105
54.2
Northern Illinois #82
45.7
Northern Illinois +10.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Northern Illinois
2 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Northern Illinois
78.1 — 7.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Northern Illinois won by 8
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Northern Illinois. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Bowling Green
Scot Loeffler #1
4–16 (20%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Terry Malone Yr 1 #1
DC Eric Lewis Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Northern Illinois
Thomas Hammock #1
6–15 (29%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Eric Eidsness Yr 1 #1
DC Derrick Jackson Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself