Sat, Sep 18 2021
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Michigan Stadium
Ann Arbor, MI
·
Turf
·
107,601 cap
Northern Illinois✈ 258 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Northern Illinois,
while Game Control favors Michigan.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Northern Illinois wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Michigan wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Michigan -27.5
O/U 54.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Michigan
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Northern Illinois 2021 Schedule
Northern Illinois's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Northern Illinois at Georgia Tech | +19.0W22–21 | 57.0 | W22–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Northern Illinois vs Wyoming | +7.0L43–50 | 44.0 | L43–50 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Northern Illinois at Michigan | +27.5L10–63 | 54.5 | L10–63 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Northern Illinois vs Maine | -21.5W41–14 | 62.0 | W41–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Northern Illinois vs Eastern Michigan | +0.0W27–20 | 62.5 | W27–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Northern Illinois at Toledo | +13.0W22–20 | 51.5 | W22–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Northern Illinois vs Bowling Green | -9.0W34–26 | 44.5 | W34–26 | O | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Northern Illinois at Central Michigan | +6.0W39–38 | 56.0 | W39–38 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/3 | Northern Illinois at Kent State | +3.5L47–52 | 72.0 | L47–52 | O | N |
| Wed 11/10 | Northern Illinois vs Ball State | +3.0W30–29 | 59.5 | W30–29 | U | Y |
| Wed 11/17 | Northern Illinois at Buffalo | -2.0W33–27 | 59.5 | W33–27 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/23 | Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan | +6.5L21–42 | 60.0 | L21–42 | O | N |
| Sat 12/4 | Northern Illinois vs Kent State | +3.5W41–23 | 75.5 | W41–23 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/17 | Northern Illinois vs Coastal Carolina | +11.0L41–47 | 63.0 | L41–47 | O | Y |
Michigan 2021 Schedule
Michigan's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Michigan vs Western Michigan | -16.5W47–14 | 65.5 | W47–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Michigan vs Washington | -6.5W31–10 | 47.5 | W31–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Michigan vs Northern Illinois | -27.5W63–10 | 54.5 | W63–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Michigan vs Rutgers | -20.0W20–13 | 50.0 | W20–13 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Michigan at Wisconsin | +2.0W38–17 | 43.5 | W38–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Michigan at Nebraska | -2.5W32–29 | 50.5 | W32–29 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Michigan vs Northwestern | -23.5W33–7 | 51.5 | W33–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Michigan at Michigan State | -4.0L33–37 | 50.5 | L33–37 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Michigan vs Indiana | -20.5W29–7 | 51.0 | W29–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Michigan at Penn State | -2.5W21–17 | 48.0 | W21–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Michigan at Maryland | -16.0W59–18 | 58.5 | W59–18 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Michigan vs Ohio State | +6.5W42–27 | 63.5 | W42–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/4 | Michigan vs Iowa | -12.0W42–3 | 43.5 | W42–3 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/31 | Michigan vs Georgia | +7.5L11–34 | 47.0 | L11–34 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Michigan
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Michigan
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Northern Illinois Edge
Northern Illinois +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Michigan Edge
Michigan +73.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Michigan
7 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Michigan
98.2 — 0.3 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Michigan won by 53
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Northern Illinois
Thomas Hammock #1
6–15 (29%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Eric Eidsness
Yr 1
#1
DC
Derrick Jackson
Yr 1
#1
Michigan
Jim Harbaugh #1
52–22 (70%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Josh Gattis
Yr 1
#1
DC
Mike Macdonald
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓