Fri, Nov 12 2021
·
Week 11
·
🏟 Raymond James Stadium
Tampa, FL
·
Turf
·
65,857 cap
Cincinnati✈ 779 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Cincinnati
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Cincinnati entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Cincinnati wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Cincinnati wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Cincinnati -24.5
O/U 58.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Cincinnati
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Cincinnati 2021 Schedule
Cincinnati's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Cincinnati vs Miami (OH) | -22.5W49–14 | 49.0 | W49–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Cincinnati vs Murray State | -36.5W42–7 | 51.5 | W42–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Cincinnati at Indiana | -4.0W38–24 | 50.0 | W38–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/2 | Cincinnati at Notre Dame | -2.5W24–13 | 50.0 | W24–13 | U | Y |
| Fri 10/8 | Cincinnati vs Temple | -30.0W52–3 | 52.5 | W52–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Cincinnati vs UCF | -21.5W56–21 | 56.0 | W56–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Cincinnati at Navy | -28.5W27–20 | 49.5 | W27–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Cincinnati at Tulane | -27.5W31–12 | 61.5 | W31–12 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Cincinnati vs Tulsa | -22.5W28–20 | 56.0 | W28–20 | U | N |
| Fri 11/12 | Cincinnati at South Florida | -24.5W45–28 | 58.5 | W45–28 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Cincinnati vs SMU | -9.5W48–14 | 65.5 | W48–14 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/26 | Cincinnati at East Carolina | -14.5W35–13 | 56.5 | W35–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/4 | Cincinnati vs Houston | -10.5W35–20 | 52.5 | W35–20 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/31 | Cincinnati vs Alabama | +13.0L6–27 | 57.5 | L6–27 | U | N |
South Florida 2021 Schedule
South Florida's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/2 | South Florida at NC State | +20.0L0–45 | 58.0 | L0–45 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | South Florida vs Florida | +29.0L20–42 | 57.0 | L20–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | South Florida vs Florida A&M | -22.5W38–17 | 50.0 | W38–17 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | South Florida at BYU | +23.5L27–35 | 54.5 | L27–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | South Florida at SMU | +21.5L17–41 | 68.5 | L17–41 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | South Florida vs Tulsa | +7.5L31–32 | 56.0 | L31–32 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | South Florida vs Temple | -1.5W34–14 | 54.5 | W34–14 | U | Y |
| Thu 10/28 | South Florida at East Carolina | +9.5L14–29 | 55.5 | L14–29 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | South Florida vs Houston | +13.5L42–54 | 53.0 | L42–54 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/12 | South Florida vs Cincinnati | +24.5L28–45 | 58.5 | L28–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | South Florida at Tulane | +5.5L14–45 | 59.5 | L14–45 | U | N |
| Fri 11/26 | South Florida at UCF | +17.0L13–17 | 62.0 | L13–17 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Cincinnati
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Cincinnati
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Cincinnati
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Cincinnati Edge
Cincinnati +1.14
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Cincinnati Edge
Cincinnati +55.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Cincinnati
1 — 3 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Cincinnati
3.2 — 86.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Cincinnati won by 17
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Cincinnati with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Cincinnati
Luke Fickell #1
38–14 (73%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Mike Denbrock
Yr 1
#1
DC
Mike Tressel
Yr 1
#1
South Florida
Charlie Weis Jr. #1
2–10 (17%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Charlie Weis Jr.
Yr 1
#1
DC
Glenn Spencer
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓