San Diego State at Air Force Week 8 College Football Matchup San Diego State at Air Force Matchup - Week 8
Sat, Oct 23 2021 · Week 8 · 🏟 Falcon Stadium Colorado Springs, CO · Turf · 46,692 cap
San Diego State✈ 809 mi+1 hr TZ
20 14
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
San Diego State
21
Air Force
22
P&R Line Air Force -1.5
P&R Total O/U 43
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Air Force -3 · O/U 38.5
Matchup Prediction
Air Force has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Air Force entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Air Force wins
Solid
Game Control
50.6%
Air Force wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Air Force -3
O/U 38.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Air Force · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 San Diego State 2nd straight Road Game
San Diego State 2021 Schedule
San Diego State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4San Diego State vs New Mexico State-31.0W28–1051.0W28–10UN
Sat 9/11San Diego State at Arizona+1.5W38–1446.0W38–14OY
Sat 9/18San Diego State vs Utah+8.0W33–3142.5W33–31OY
Sat 9/25San Diego State vs Towson-23.0W48–2141.0W48–21OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/9San Diego State vs New Mexico-19.5W31–742.5W31–7UY
Fri 10/15San Diego State at San José State-10.0W19–1341.0W19–13UN
Sat 10/23San Diego State at Air Force+3.0W20–1438.5W20–14UY
Sat 10/30San Diego State vs Fresno State+2.0L20–3043.5L20–30ON
Sat 11/6San Diego State at Hawai'i-7.0W17–1045.0W17–10UN
Sat 11/13San Diego State vs Nevada-2.5W23–2145.0W23–21UN
Fri 11/19San Diego State at UNLV-11.0W28–2041.0W28–20ON
Fri 11/26San Diego State vs Boise State+3.0W27–1644.0W27–16UY
Sat 12/4San Diego State vs Utah State-6.5L13–4649.5L13–46ON
Tue 12/21San Diego State vs UTSA-3.0W38–2448.0W38–24OY
Air Force 2021 Schedule
Air Force's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Air Force vs Lafayette-40.5W35–1449.5W35–14UN
Sat 9/11Air Force at Navy-6.0W23–340.0W23–3UY
Sat 9/18Air Force vs Utah State-9.0L45–4954.0L45–49ON
Sat 9/25Air Force vs Florida Atlantic-3.5W31–754.0W31–7UY
Sat 10/2Air Force at New Mexico-11.5W38–1046.0W38–10OY
Sat 10/9Air Force vs Wyoming-5.5W24–1446.5W24–14UY
Sat 10/16Air Force at Boise State+3.0W24–1752.0W24–17UY
Sat 10/23Air Force vs San Diego State-3.0L14–2038.5L14–20UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/6Air Force vs Army-2.5L14–2137.5L14–21UN
Sat 11/13Air Force at Colorado State-3.0W35–2145.0W35–21OY
Fri 11/19Air Force at Nevada-1.5W41–3953.5W41–39OY
Fri 11/26Air Force vs UNLV-18.5W48–1449.5W48–14OY
Tue 12/28Air Force vs Louisville-1.0W31–2855.0W31–28OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Air Force PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Air Force
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Air Force
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Air Force
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
San Diego State
+0.333
Air Force
+0.345
Air Force Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
San Diego State
+0.402
Air Force
+0.691
Air Force Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
San Diego State
0.197
Air Force
0.201
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Air Force Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
San Diego State
+7.209
Air Force
+7.777
Air Force Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
San Diego State
+0.772
Air Force
+0.813
Air Force Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
San Diego State
69.5
Air Force
69.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
San Diego State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
San Diego State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
San Diego State
3.6
Air Force
-8.3
Offense Rating
San Diego State
16.6
Air Force
8.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
San Diego State
13.0
Air Force
16.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Air Force Edge
Avg sequences created per game
San Diego State #58
0.60
Air Force #25
1.67
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
San Diego State #61
0.20
Air Force #20
0.67
Air Force +1.07
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Air Force Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
San Diego State #1
77.3
Air Force #1
82.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
San Diego State #22
12.2
Air Force #8
8.2
Air Force +5.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
San Diego State
1 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
San Diego State
9.6 — 77.3 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
San Diego State won by 6
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Air Force, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
San Diego State
Brady Hoke #1
7–4 (64%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Jeff Hecklinski Yr 1 #1
DC Kurt Mattix Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Air Force
Troy Calhoun #1
104–73 (59%) · Yr 15 at school
OC Mike Thiessen Yr 1 #1
DC John Rudzinski Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself