Sat, Sep 18 2021
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Qualcomm Stadium
San Diego, CA
·
Turf
·
70,561 cap
Utah✈ 623 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Utah,
while Game Control favors San Diego State.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Utah wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
San Diego State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Utah -8
O/U 42.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Utah
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Utah 2021 Schedule
Utah's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/2 | Utah vs Weber State | -29.5W40–17 | 49.0 | W40–17 | O | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Utah at BYU | -7.0L17–26 | 50.0 | L17–26 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Utah at San Diego State | -8.0L31–33 | 42.5 | L31–33 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Utah vs Washington State | -15.0W24–13 | 53.5 | W24–13 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/9 | Utah at USC | +3.0W42–26 | 52.5 | W42–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Utah vs Arizona State | -1.0W35–21 | 51.0 | W35–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Utah at Oregon State | -3.0L34–42 | 57.5 | L34–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Utah vs UCLA | -6.0W44–24 | 60.5 | W44–24 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/5 | Utah at Stanford | -10.0W52–7 | 52.0 | W52–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Utah at Arizona | -24.0W38–29 | 54.5 | W38–29 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Utah vs Oregon | -3.0W38–7 | 58.5 | W38–7 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/26 | Utah vs Colorado | -24.0W28–13 | 52.5 | W28–13 | U | N |
| Fri 12/3 | Utah vs Oregon | -3.0W38–10 | 57.5 | W38–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 1/1 | Utah vs Ohio State | +4.5L45–48 | 64.5 | L45–48 | O | Y |
San Diego State 2021 Schedule
San Diego State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | San Diego State vs New Mexico State | -31.0W28–10 | 51.0 | W28–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | San Diego State at Arizona | +1.5W38–14 | 46.0 | W38–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | San Diego State vs Utah | +8.0W33–31 | 42.5 | W33–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | San Diego State vs Towson | -23.0W48–21 | 41.0 | W48–21 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/9 | San Diego State vs New Mexico | -19.5W31–7 | 42.5 | W31–7 | U | Y |
| Fri 10/15 | San Diego State at San José State | -10.0W19–13 | 41.0 | W19–13 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | San Diego State at Air Force | +3.0W20–14 | 38.5 | W20–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | San Diego State vs Fresno State | +2.0L20–30 | 43.5 | L20–30 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | San Diego State at Hawai'i | -7.0W17–10 | 45.0 | W17–10 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | San Diego State vs Nevada | -2.5W23–21 | 45.0 | W23–21 | U | N |
| Fri 11/19 | San Diego State at UNLV | -11.0W28–20 | 41.0 | W28–20 | O | N |
| Fri 11/26 | San Diego State vs Boise State | +3.0W27–16 | 44.0 | W27–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/4 | San Diego State vs Utah State | -6.5L13–46 | 49.5 | L13–46 | O | N |
| Tue 12/21 | San Diego State vs UTSA | -3.0W38–24 | 48.0 | W38–24 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Utah
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Utah
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Utah
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Utah Edge
Utah +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
San Diego State Edge
San Diego State +32.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
San Diego State
46.6 — 40.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
San Diego State won by 2
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Utah
Kyle Whittingham #1
135–68 (67%)
· Yr 17 at school
OC
Andy Ludwig
Yr 1
#1
DC
Morgan Scalley
Yr 1
#1
San Diego State
Brady Hoke #1
7–4 (64%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Jeff Hecklinski
Yr 1
#1
DC
Kurt Mattix
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓