Utah State at Air Force Week 3 College Football Matchup Utah State at Air Force Matchup - Week 3
Sat, Sep 18 2021 · Week 3 · 🏟 Falcon Stadium Colorado Springs, CO · Turf · 46,692 cap
Utah State✈ 413 miSame TZ
49 45
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Utah State
22
AFA -9
Air Force
32
P&R Line Air Force -10
P&R Total O/U 54
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Air Force -9 · O/U 54.0
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Utah State, while Game Control favors Air Force. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
73.7%
Utah State wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Air Force wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Air Force -9
O/U 54.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Air Force · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Utah State 2021 Schedule
Utah State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Utah State at Washington State+17.5W26–2366.5W26–23UY
Fri 9/10Utah State vs North Dakota-6.5W48–2453.5W48–24OY
Sat 9/18Utah State at Air Force+9.0W49–4554.0W49–45OY
Sat 9/25Utah State vs Boise State+9.5L3–2769.5L3–27UN
Fri 10/1Utah State vs BYU+9.0L20–3466.0L20–34UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/16Utah State at UNLV-7.5W28–2464.0W28–24UN
Fri 10/22Utah State vs Colorado State+3.0W26–2458.5W26–24UY
Sat 10/30Utah State vs Hawai'i-3.5W51–3166.0W51–31OY
Sat 11/6Utah State at New Mexico State-18.0W35–1372.0W35–13UY
Sat 11/13Utah State at San José State+4.5W48–1758.0W48–17OY
Sat 11/20Utah State vs Wyoming-6.0L17–4452.0L17–44ON
Fri 11/26Utah State at New Mexico-17.0W35–1048.0W35–10UY
Sat 12/4Utah State at San Diego State+6.5W46–1349.5W46–13OY
Sat 12/18Utah State vs Oregon State+7.0W24–1368.0W24–13UY
Air Force 2021 Schedule
Air Force's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Air Force vs Lafayette-40.5W35–1449.5W35–14UN
Sat 9/11Air Force at Navy-6.0W23–340.0W23–3UY
Sat 9/18Air Force vs Utah State-9.0L45–4954.0L45–49ON
Sat 9/25Air Force vs Florida Atlantic-3.5W31–754.0W31–7UY
Sat 10/2Air Force at New Mexico-11.5W38–1046.0W38–10OY
Sat 10/9Air Force vs Wyoming-5.5W24–1446.5W24–14UY
Sat 10/16Air Force at Boise State+3.0W24–1752.0W24–17UY
Sat 10/23Air Force vs San Diego State-3.0L14–2038.5L14–20UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/6Air Force vs Army-2.5L14–2137.5L14–21UN
Sat 11/13Air Force at Colorado State-3.0W35–2145.0W35–21OY
Fri 11/19Air Force at Nevada-1.5W41–3953.5W41–39OY
Fri 11/26Air Force vs UNLV-18.5W48–1449.5W48–14OY
Tue 12/28Air Force vs Louisville-1.0W31–2855.0W31–28OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Air Force PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Air Force
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Air Force
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Air Force
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Utah State
+0.406
Air Force
+0.449
Air Force Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Utah State
+0.703
Air Force
+0.796
Air Force Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Utah State
0.199
Air Force
0.201
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Air Force Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Utah State
+7.185
Air Force
+7.635
Air Force Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Utah State
+0.773
Air Force
+0.882
Air Force Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Utah State
71.1
Air Force
69.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Air Force Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Air Force Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Utah State
-8.3
Air Force
-5.2
Offense Rating
Utah State
10.0
Air Force
12.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Utah State
18.3
Air Force
17.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Utah State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Utah State #13
1.00
Air Force #25
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Utah State #44
1.00
Air Force #20
0.00
Utah State +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Air Force Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Utah State #1
33.0
Air Force #1
82.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Utah State #67
47.0
Air Force #8
6.5
Air Force +49.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Utah State
2 — 3 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Air Force
77.8 — 13.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Utah State won by 4
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Utah State
Blake Anderson #1
3–0 (100%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Anthony Tucker Yr 1 #1
DC Ephraim Banda Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Air Force
Troy Calhoun #1
104–73 (59%) · Yr 15 at school
OC Mike Thiessen Yr 1 #1
DC John Rudzinski Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself